Iraqis hold little hope for change as polls close in election

Polls have closed in Iraq for parliamentary elections marked by apathy and scepticism despite close geopolitical attention.

Polling started across the country at 7am (04:00 GMT) and ended at 6pm (15:00 GMT) on Tuesday, in a vote that has been closely watched in Iran and the United States. Preliminary results are expected within 24 hours.

It is the sixth election held in the now relatively stable country since the US-led invasion toppled longtime ruler Saddam Hussein in 2003.

However, many Iraqis have lost hope that elections can bring meaningful change to their daily lives, feeling that the vote benefits only political elites and regional powers.

Nearly 21 million Iraqis were eligible to vote across 4,501 polling stations nationwide, reported the Iraqi News Agency (INA).

More than 7,750 candidates, nearly a third of them women, are running for 329 seats in parliament. Under the law, 25 percent of seats are reserved for women, while nine are allocated for religious minorities.

In an electoral system that many believe favours larger parties, just 75 independent candidates are standing.

The Iraqi electoral commission said that turnout was 55 percent of the country’s 21 million registered voters. But that did not include another 11 million people who were eligible to vote if they had registered.

Observers had feared that turnout might dip below the record low of 41 percent in 2021, reflecting voter disillusionment in a country beset by entrenched leadership, and allegations of mismanagement and endemic corruption.

Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem, reporting from the Iraqi capital Baghdad, said there was a lot of public apathy, as well as a call from the influential Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr for his supporters to boycott the vote.

Iraqis do not feel like they are getting “any real result” from the political process, Hashem observed. “This is creating a coldness towards elections, and people are distancing themselves,” he added.

Familiar faces

By convention in post-invasion Iraq, a Shia Muslim holds the powerful post of prime minister and a Sunni that of parliament speaker, while the largely ceremonial presidency goes to a Kurd.

However, few new potential candidates have emerged recently, with the same veteran politicians at the forefront.

Current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, elected in 2022 with the backing of pro-Iran parties, is expected to secure a sizeable bloc in parliament as he seeks a second term.

Other frontrunners include influential Shia figures, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Muslim scholar Ammar al-Hakim.

Sunni parties are running separately, with the former parliament speaker, Mohammed al-Halbousi, expected to do well.

The ballot is marked by the absence of Shia leader al-Sadr, who has urged his followers to boycott the “flawed election”.

In 2021, al-Sadr secured the largest bloc before withdrawing from parliament following a dispute with Shia parties that refused to support his bid to form a government, and instead came together to form a larger alliance.

Given the fragmentation of the Shia and Sunni blocs, the Kurds could play kingmakers in the negotiations to form the next Iraqi government, Al Jazeera’s Mahmoud Abdelwahed reported from Erbil, the capital of northern Iraq’s Kurdish region.

The six major Shia blocks are “fragmented”, while the three major Sunni blocs are also “severely divided”, Abdelwahed explained.

“We are expecting long negotiations,” said Zeidon Al-Kinani, an international relations professor at Georgetown University in Qatar.

Al-Kinani noted that the run-up to the vote had been filled with sectarian messaging, with candidates proposing “very little” in the way of policies, programmes and long-term strategies that could improve the living standards of the Iraqi people.

Balance

Throughout his time in office, al-Sudani has sought to balance Iraq’s relations with Tehran and Washington.

Even as its influence wanes, Iran hopes to preserve its power in Iraq – the only close ally that remained out of Israel’s crosshairs amid the war in Gaza.

By way of contrast, Lebanon and Yemen suffered heavy losses as Israel struck at armed groups that they host.

The US also holds significant sway in Iraq with forces deployed across the country.

Early last year, pro-Iran factions in Iraq, listed as “terrorist groups” by Washington, yielded to internal and US pressure and halted the targeting of these forces. Baghdad remains under pressure from the US to disarm the groups.

US envoy Mark Savaya recently called for Iraq to be freed from Iran and its proxies’ “malign” interference.