Israel is set to advance two major illegal settlement plans for occupied East Jerusalem, which Palestinian officials and experts warn will serve as the final blow to hopes for a contiguous Palestinian state.

The Jerusalem governorate announced on Sunday that Israeli authorities will discuss approving 9,000 settlement units on the ruins of the Qalandiya airport, also known as Atarot, and a separate project in Sheikh Jarrah to displace 40 families.

To understand the strategic implications of these moves, Al Jazeera spoke to Suhail Khalilieh, a political analyst and expert on illegal Israeli settlements.

The Trump factor

The Atarot plan was briefly shelved in December 2025 but has now returned to the table. According to Khalilieh, the timing is directly linked to the shifting geopolitical landscape following the recent meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and United States President Donald Trump.

“The meeting … served as a green light for continued settlement expansion,” Khalilieh told Al Jazeera.

“The American position, which treats Jerusalem as being outside any negotiation process … has encouraged the occupation to put this project into direct implementation,” he added, noting that international criticism has been reduced to mere “verbal objections without any deterrence”.

Severing the north

The airport project is not just about housing; it is a strategic chokehold, Khalilieh said.

He explained that the Atarot settlement is one of the three major axes designed to complete the “Greater Jerusalem” vision:

  • North: The Atarot project will link East Jerusalem with the Givat Zeev settlement bloc, effectively severing the city from Ramallah.
  • East: The E1 plan aims to create a bridge between East Jerusalem and the Maale Adumim bloc.
  • South: Expansions in Har Gilo and the new Nahal Heletz settlement will connect the city to the Gush Etzion bloc.

“This will increase the area of Jerusalem … by adding 175sq km [68sq miles],” Khalilieh said.

“The current area of East Jerusalem, according to the Israeli definition, is 71sq km [27sq miles]. With these additions, Greater Jerusalem under Israeli control will reach 246sq km [95sq miles], 4.5 percent … of the West Bank’s area, aiming to abort any possibility of establishing a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem.”

Encirclement of the Old City

In parallel, the “Nahalat Shimon” plan in Sheikh Jarrah targets the historic “Holy Basin” area north of the Old City.

“This falls under the old-new Israeli efforts to expand the settlement ring around the Old City,” Khalilieh said.

The goal, he argued, is to dismantle geographical continuity between Palestinian neighbourhoods like Silwan, the Mount of Olives, and Sheikh Jarrah, transforming them into “isolated population islands”.

“Today, the takeover of the Old City has begun through this ring … aiming to empty these areas gradually through intensified demolitions.”

‘Silent transfer’

Khalilieh warned that Israel is using neutral planning terms like “urban renewal” and “land settlement” to camouflage a policy of forced displacement.

“Development for Israelis means demolishing Palestinian homes under the guise of ‘building without a permit’,” he said, noting that more than 300 Palestinian homes were demolished in East Jerusalem in 2025 alone.

He also pointed to the unification of the “Arnona” property tax, which forces residents of neglected Palestinian neighbourhoods to pay the high rates as those in affluent Israeli areas.

“This puts them under cumulative pressure to leave Jerusalem … it constitutes a silent forced transfer.”

Is it too late?

Khalilieh stressed that legal and diplomatic intervention must happen “before construction begins”, as reversing facts on the ground is politically “nearly impossible”.

He called for activating provisional measures at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and targeting international companies involved in the projects.

“The problem, first and last, is a political dilemma, not a legal one,” he concluded. “Early intervention is crucial … to freeze these projects until the political situation can be addressed.”