How Greg Selinger would win Manitoba NDP leadership race

A critical constituency in the party's leadership contest is the labour vote.In the 2009 NDP leadership race, Greg Selinger swept to victory in large part thanks to support from big unions.

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Manitoba Federation of Labour President Kevin Rebeck says the organization as a whole has "no single united voice" on the 2015 leadership election, but expect the various affiliates to take public positions.

Winning the labour vote crucial

Most important to watch, union juggernauts: UFCW and CUPE.

In 2009, they accounted for nearly 200 delegates. UFCW strongly endorsed Selinger. Some CUPE bosses supported Selinger, but delegates were free to vote their conscience.

Neither organization has publicly announced who they will support this time (yet), but Selinger will get a huge vote windfall if he's able to win their endorsements again.

Selinger suggests he has "grass roots" support. That's a buzz word when you want to appear strong out of the gate, but don't have (or are not ready to announce) specific groups and people who are supporting you.

The support is materializing quickly.

On Jan. 2, his team posted on his new campaign website a dozen supporters from across the province, but he'll need more than a dozen.

He'll need to turn his support-in-the-wings into concrete public support if he hopes to cling to power.

Caucus and cabinet support key

When former premier Gary Doer left office in 2009, he did so on his own.

"If you ever get a chance in this job to go out on your own timing, you'd better take advantage of it," he said.

"I have watched very good people leave not on their own accord."

Given Greg Selinger's resolute backbone in the face of this fall's mutiny, it's clear the current premier does not think it's his time and still thinks he has the caucus support to stay.

In order for Selinger to win, he'd better be right.

We know he lost any support he ever had from the rebellious five former cabinet ministers (Theresa Oswald, Andrew Swan, Stan Struthers, Erin Selby and Jennifer Howard) and one backbencher (Clarence Pettersen), but how many others were more muted in their disdain?

Caucus and cabinet support was critical to Selinger's success in the last NDP leadership race and will be again now if not more so.

In 2009, Selinger had the most caucus support of the leadership candidates: 10 backbenchers and 6 cabinet ministers.In the 2015 contest, he already has several cabinet ministers and MLAs supporting his leadership bid, but there are several still quiet.

Caucus support may not sound like a lot, since there are only 35 NDP MLAs, but make no mistake they hold sway in their ridings.

Most often when an MLA endorses a leadership candidate, that candidate is also the choice of the majority of the delegates selected from the riding.

In 2009, only two ridings (The Maples and The Pas) bucked the trend.

In each case, Selinger was the choice of the elected member, but Steve Ashton won the delegate selection process.

Not only will Selinger need caucus support to battle in the ridings for delegates, but the more support he gets from caucus, the more he can paint the rebel five as rogue.

In their resignation news conferenceNov. 3, the rebels told Manitoba if not Canada Selinger was a mean-spirited leader who didn't listen.

Selinger can turn down the volume on those accusations and downplay the rebellion as fringe with each MLA he gets on his side.

That appears more and more challenging as an elected New Democrat, a current cabinet minister, party bosses and political staffers join Theresa Oswald's campaign.

We will soon learn if Selinger's resolute backbone was an accurate reflection of the majority of Manitoba New Democrats or an inability for the boss to read the room.