Canada's climate plan is fractured and inadequate: Don Pittis

This column is part of a package of special coverage of climate change issues by CBC News leading up to the United Nations climate change conference (COP21) being heldin Paris from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11.

The new Liberal government may be heading to theParis climate change conferencewith large ambitions, provincial representativesin tow.But in practical terms,Canada's planto roll back greenhouse gasesis fractured andinsufficient.

The latest UNclimate conference, COP21, begins Nov.30in the French capital. Itis intended to create new global targets that will go into effect after 2020 to prevent a two-degree C rise in global temperatures considered a dangerous tipping point.

Figures from Environment Canada show that Canada isfailing to meeteven its 2020 targets, never mind any new targets to be agreed in Paris.

Canada's commitment for 2020,under the Copenhagen accord, isto reduce emissions 17 per cent from their 2005 level.

So far, most Canadian provincesdon't even have a structureto put a price on carbon, considered byeconomists to be the only practical way to stop ever-rising greenhouse gas output.

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In some ways Canada is anexample of a planet-wide failure, so much so that the United Nations assembles an annual analysisby independent scientists under the title Emissions Gap Report.

"Unfortunately, the world is not heading in the right direction," said leading climate change economist Andrew Steer in a release on the most recentEmissions Gap Report.

And according to Chris Ragan,the McGill University economist who heads a Canadian private sectorgroup focused on making climate change work without damaging the economy, it is no surprise.

"Targets are really very useful for focusing the mind but if you're not going to put policies in place that actively do anything, then you shouldn't be surprised if you don't get to your targets," says Ragan, who chairs Canada'sEcofiscalCommission, funded by several family foundations and industrygroups, including Suncor.

In theory, carbon pricing is not essential, but the alternative, regulation, is cumbersome.Regulations such as those that limit car emissions can work. But such rulesdepend on the whim of government, and under the Conservativesat least,federal regulation was ineffectualin meeting targets.

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Economists insist that carbon pricing is the only practical and efficient way to share the cost of fighting climate change fairly across all parts of the economy. Enacting those rules will release the power of business, allowing it to earn a profit by finding ways to cutgreenhouse gases.

So far only three provinces in Canada's fractured system have introduced carbon pricing systems: Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec. Those three are largely incompatible. Ontario has announced it will at some point join the same cap-and-trade system used by Quebec.

Critics, including former CIBC chief economist Jeff Rubin,have roundly criticized cap-and-trade systems, calling them a "cash grab" that lets governments adjust the rules to take pressure off their favourite industries. But the panel of economists at the EcofiscalCommission says the important thing is not the system, but the true average carbon price it sets after taking account of complexities and exceptions.

Too much hot air

According to The Way Forward, the commission's reportpublished in the spring,the effective carbon price set by Alberta's carbon tax was tiny,just over $1 a tonne. Alberta's new government is reworking the system to make it more effective, but according to Raganthat may onlydouble the effective carbonprice.

The commission's reportestimatesQuebec's cap-and-trade systemprices carbon at $10 atonne.

The carbon pricing system that is the darling of economists is British Columbia's. With a price of $30 a tonne, it applies to every business and consumer equally.

All the money collected is returned in lower taxes. Rather than suffering adevastatedeconomy as many predicted, Vancouver, the largest city in B.C.,has continued to grow strongly.

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There are two difficulties with the B.C. system. One, businesses that wish to avoid the tax need only move to a province with a low carbon tax, or none. The other is that even $30 a tonne, where the price is frozen until 2018, is only a small fraction of the price needed to prevent a two-degree rise in global temperatures, says B.C. climate expert Matt Horne.

"Most of the modelling out there for the Canadian context would point to $100, $200 a tonneas the range we have to be targeting," says Horne. "It's not a price you have to hit tomorrow, but you have to be working toward it over a decade."

In Canada that does not seem to be happening.If Catherine McKenna,the new federalminister ofenvironment and climate change,fails to lead the provinces in creating policies that actually begin meeting Canada's targets, the gathering in Paris will offer little butmorehot air.

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More analysisby Don Pittis