'No evidence of it happening': Experts scrutinize Trump's claims of election rigging

Despite the ruminations of Republican presidential nomineeDonald Trump, experts say it's highly improbable the outcome of the U.S. election will be rigged.

"You'd have to do a lot of shenanigans in lots of different states to tip things," said Hans Noel, an associate professor of political scienceat Georgetown University."Because running up the score in one state isn't enough and that would make rigging an election really complicated and therefore unlikely."

Trump made the "rigged"claims on Monday, first at a rally in Columbus, Ohio, and laterin an interview withFox News host Sean Hannity. Trump told Hannitythe election is "going to be rigged" and that Republicans need to be careful and watch closely, otherwise the election is "going to be taken away from us."

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He was short on specifics andevidence, briefly referring to the2012 election and someprecincts where "practically nobody [was] voting for the Republicans."

"And I think that's wrong, I think that was unfair," he said.

What states, what precincts, Trump never specified, but it was an extraordinary claim for a presidential candidate to make because those types of accusations ofirregularities and voter fraud are often left forpartisans, Noel said.

'Really unusual'

"To hear a presidential candidate suggest that, especially in this way, that there will be fraud in thiselection and that may be why I lose,is really unusual," Noel said.

'That election is going to be rigged': Trump

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'That election is going to be rigged': Trump

While it's certainly the case in American history thatparty machineshave been able to influenceelections in ways that would now be considered inappropriate, those days are largely gone, he said.

"Systematicvoter fraud is actually really difficult to do and there's noevidenceof it happening," he said.

Trump could be right that there were some districts in 2012 that saw very fewRepublicanvotes cast. But to attribute that to some kind of voting manipulation, one would, at the very least,have to first look at the voting trends of past general electionsand determine whether there was a monumental shift in voting patterns inthe districts.

Even then, that wouldn't necessarily offerproof of voter fraud, Noel said.

"There are places where there are very few votesfor Democrats and very few voting for Republicans."

Trump didn't mention the location of the suspect precincts of 2012, but to make any kind of impact, voting irregularities would have to occurin one of the battleground states. Any kind of voting manipulation in a handful of precinctsin places likeNew York or California or Mississippi states that reliably vote Republican or Democratwould hardly turn the election,saidRobertShapiro, a political science professor atColumbia University.

"It justgoesto show you this is the depth of [Trump's]thoughtthat goes into these things," Shapiro said.

Groundwork to claim unfairness

Republicans often claim that voter identification laws need to be tightened because of rampant voter fraud. Trump couldtry to use that argument to buttress his claims of possible rigging, Shapiro said. In fact,some recentrulings that quashed such lawsmight have even provided himan opening. WhileTrump hasn't cited those rulings specifically to make hiscase, he did talk about his concerns regarding voter identification lawsin an interview with the Washington Post.

"The voter ID situation has turned out to be a very unfair development," he said. "We may have people vote 10 times. It's inconceivable that you don't have to show identification in order to vote or that that the identification doesn't have to be somewhat foolproof."

Richard L.Hasen, a political science and law professor at the University of California at Irvine, said while there are incidents ofvoter fraud in the United States, they arequite rare. Most occur atthe local leveland involveabsentee ballots. That's notthe kind of fraud that a voter ID law would prevent, he said.

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Hasen said Trump's allegations mightjust be part of a strategy oflayingthe groundwork for claiming unfairness if he loses the election a claim that,Hasen said, would beirresponsible to make.

"I think it's a dangerous game to play to make those kind of unfounded accusations," he said. "Democracy depends on people'sbeliefthat electionsfairlyreflect the voters' will."

Yet there is an "underlying reality" to what Trump said, according toMichael Cornfield,an associate professor at George Washington University'sGraduate School of Political Management and Research. The U.S. electoralsystem isvulnerable.

Election 'could be hacked'

"I don't think the election is going to be rigged," Cornfield said. "I do think it'spossible it could be hacked."

Much like the recent hacking of the Democratic National Committee emails, districts that use a personal computer to tabulate ballotscould be vulnerable to malware, Cornfield said.

Elections have been hacked inthe past, and it's possible for those hackerstochange some votes, he said.Not enough to manipulate the outcome, but enough to sow doubt about the results for a significant number of Americans.

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"If there are problems, then rhetoric like [Trump's]has more believability and that is a big problem. Because if peopledon't believe the election results, then what happens?" Cornfield said.

"I think it would continue and maybe worsen this chronic problem we have of low trust in our governinginstitutions and that spells out problemson everythingthe government touches."