Yukon votes: 5 things to watch in today's territorial election

It's promising to be a close and unpredictable election in Yukon today, as voters head to the polls to choose thenext territorial government.

The conservative-leaning Yukon Party is hoping to make history by winning an unprecedented fourth straight majority, but there are signs that Yukonersmay be ready for change. An independent poll last month suggested the Liberal Party and the Yukon Party were in a dead heat out front, withthe NDP close behind.

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The last time Yukoners headed to the polls, in 2011, the resource-richterritory was enjoying an economic boom fuelled by high commodity prices. Darrell Pasloski'sYukon Party gladly accepted some credit for the good times, and handily won another majority.

The economic climate is much different now mines have closed, exploration projects have halted, and the Conference Board of Canada has said Yukon'seconomy looks "bleak," at least in the near future. The Yukon Party has not been as willing to accept blame for the downturn.

• Yukon's economic outlook 'bleakest' in Canada, report says

Pasloskihas instead focused his campaign message on the proposed federal carbon tax, saying it will make life unaffordable for Yukoners and his party alone will fight for, and win, an exemption for Yukon.

Liz Hanson's NDP has focused on environmental and social issues, saying theparty wouldban any fracking in the territory (the Yukon Party supports fracking in a small area of the territory's southeast). The NDP also promised measures aimed at alleviating poverty, such as raising the minimum wage.

Sandy Silver's Liberal Party has presented itself as a middle-ground option, taking a stand against frackingand stressing a positive message of collaboration and consultation, especially with respect to First Nations. The Yukon Party has had a fractious relationship (read: court battles) with First Nations governments, so the Liberals are promising better relations.

Here are some things to watch as the votes are counted on Monday night:

1. Will Yukon end up withminority government?

The close polling results suggest that it may be tough for any of the parties to win a decisive majority, even though they all apparently have a decent shot at it. Just as likely, perhaps, is aminority government.

• ANALYSIS: Yukon parties weigh in on possible minority government

If that happens, it would be the first time in 24 years that Yukonersfailed to deliver a majority government to the legislative assembly.

There are 19 seatsin the legislative assembly, so 10 seats are needed to win a majority. But what happens if one party wins seven seats, and the others win six each? Or, even more potentially vexing a seven-seven-five split? Who would form the government, and could they make a minority work? Would theLiberals and NDP work together to oust the Yukon Party? Would Yukon's commissioner need to get involved (something that's never happened before)?

The election may settle nothing, at least not initially. The worst-case scenario, for many Yukoners, would be another election sooner rather than later.

2. Will the leaders keep theirseats?

Often, political parties count on their leadersbeing safely returned to the legislatureeven when the party's fortunes take a dive. In this election, there is no reason to assume any of the leaders are absolutely safe in their seats.

Yukon Party leader Darrell Pasloski won his Mountainview riding in 2011 by 104 votes, or about 10 per cent. It was his first election as MLA and as party leader. His challengers this time have been campaigninghard against him, and hoping that there's been a general shift away from the Yukon Party that could help bring down Pasloski.

Liberal leader Sandy Silver was a Dawson City high school teacher and political neophytewhen he was elected in the Klondike riding in 2011. He became the party's leader by default because he was the only Liberal in the legislative assembly. He won hisseat by 126 votes last time (about 11.6 per cent).

If the 2011 election is any guide, NDP leader Liz Hanson would appear to be the most secure of the leadersshe won her Whitehorse Centre seat by 323 votes, a 25.6 per cent margin of victory. Her Liberal challenger this time, though, has deep roots in the riding and was campaigning aggressivelyfor months before the election call. The Yukon Party's candidate, meanwhile, is a well-known cabinet minister who announced his retirement this year, before deciding to jump into the race in Whitehorse Centre. This race could be a close one.

• RIDING PROFILE: Mountainview
• RIDING PROFILE: Klondike
• RIDING PROFILE: Whitehorse Centre

3. Will urban ridings vote differently from rural areas?

Most of Yukon's ridings and voters are in Whitehorse, so a party can't win power without at least some city ridings (of the 19 seats in the legislature, 11are in Whitehorse). A party could, however, form a majority government without any seats from rural ridings.

The independent poll done last month found the Liberals had a slight edge in Whitehorse, so it's possible that party could rack up a majority of seats in the capital alone, and in the process form the government.

The Yukon Party has won power with seats in urban and rural ridings in the last three elections,so there hasn't been a clear and firmpolitical divide between the capital and the rest of the territory.

That may be changing, though, as Whitehorse grows faster and becomes more diverse than Yukon's smaller communities. Are their political leanings also diverging?

4. Could the Greens be spoilers?

The Yukon Green Party has neverbeen a major factor in territorial politics, and it would be a shock to many Yukoners ifany of the party's five candidates this time won a seat. In 2011, the party's two candidates won less than one per cent of the popular vote.

But it's possible the party could affect some local races, especially where the vote is expected to be closeand even a handful of votes can makea big difference. Could the Greens be spoiler candidates?

Many Yukonershave Green sympathies, and likeable party leader Frank de Jonghas run a spirited campaign, but it's tough to say whether that will translate into votes.

Some left-leaning Yukonersare still smarting from the federal election in 2011, when Green candidate John Streicker's strong showing likely helped Conservative Ryan Leefunseat popular Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell in a squeaker (Bagnellhandily re-claimed the seat in 2015, while Streickeris now running in the Yukon election as a Liberal).

5. How many will turn out on election day?

Yukonersliketo vote.In last year'sfederal election, the territory had one of the highest turnouts of any province or territory, at 76 per cent (turnout across Canada was 68.3 per cent, the highest in 22 years).

The 2011 territorial election saw 74.3 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots, and turnout in 2006 was only slightly less, at 72.9 per cent.

The Yukon legislature also passed a numberof changes to voting rules this year, aimed at making it easier for people to vote. Officials are accepting more forms of voter identification, and there are new provisions to allow people in remote areas to vote by phone or even Skype. Advance polls were also open longer this year.

• Record number of ballots cast in Yukon's advance polls

• How to cast a ballot from the bush? This Yukoner used Skype

There's reason to believe that Yukoners are especially engaged in this election, and turnout may be even higher than in the past. Advance polls last week saw nearly 23 per cent of all electors cast ballots up from about 17.7 per cent in 2011, and 11 per cent in 2006.

Or course, there's also weather to consider. A snowy day always a possibility in Yukon, in November could discourage some voters, especially in rural ridings, from a drive to the polls.

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