5 things to watch for in City of Ottawa's 2019 budget

For the first time since Jim Watsonwas elected mayor in 2010, the Ottawa Police Servicemay table a budget that's out of step with his tax promise.

This week marks the ninth city budget to be tabled under Watson, and as usual, the overall property tax increase for 2019 is expected to fall in line with the mayor's election pledge.

• ELECTION 2018: Watson pledges 3% tax hike

This time around, our three-term mayor pledged the largest tax increase yet threeper centand convinced most councillors to approve guidelines that call for all city department budgetsto abide by that cap.

But it doesn't look like police are playing ball,which could make for an interesting 2019 budget season.

Here are five things to watch for as the draft budget is tabledWednesday morning.

1. Police budget ask as high as 5%

The Ottawa Police Service put councillors on notice last year that sticking with a two per cent increase woulddrain their reserves, and that would mean a bigger ask in 2019.

True to their word, last month's2019 police budget proposal packed a 5.1 per cent increase.

While Watson has indicatedhe's not in favour of a police budget that carries a tax hike of more than threeper cent, police boardchair Diane Deans has said she's willing to entertain a higher increase than directed by council.

The police budget to be tabled early Wednesday morning is expected to include a five per cent hike, but it might not end there. Council will have to approve the final budget, but elected officials can't direct the force when it comes to what to add or what to cut council can either approve the police budget, or sendit back.

2. Transit fares frozen

The city put off raising the price of OC Transpo fares in January, after the light rail system failed to get up and running in 2018 as planned. Expect to seethat 2.5 per cent fare increase delayed until at least Julythat's if the twice-delayed LRT is actually ready by March31, as promised.

Last year's budget was built around an anticipatedboost in ridership from the shiny new train system. Seeing as those trains have not yet left the station, what impact will that have on the books into 2019? Weknowthe LRT delay has already cost the city $25 million.

As for the portion of transit funding that's collected straight off the tax bill, the city treasurer has been directed to up it by 3.5 per cent this budget something like $23 for the average urban home. That's up from the 2.5 per cent increases taxpayers saw each year during the last council term.

That money is supposed to provide extra bus service in growing areas, and help ease the transition to light rail.

3. Mayor's promise to fix more roads

Watson has alsopromised to use part of the proposed three per cent tax increase to fix infrastructure, especially roads.

In 2017,the city's infrastructure gap sat at about $70 million.In other words, if the city actually fixed everything that needed fixing, from roads to community centres to tennis courts, it should have been spending an additional $70 million a year.

In 2017,council approved an additional $6.8million each year and voted to apply a $10-million "surprise" surplus towardroads and other infrastructure repair.

Council directed city staff to draft a budget for 2019 that includes an additional $9.8 million towardinfrastructure renewal. If that amount is added each of the next four years, as Watson promised,the city will be investing an additional $40 million in asset repairs by the end of the term.

It's not completely clear just how quickly city assets are deteriorating, and how far thisadditional spendingwill go toward closing the infrastructure gap.

4. Levy to alleviate housing crisis

In past budgets, advocacy groups have influenced the city to create a low-income transit pass and add funding for struggling social service agencies. This year, they've turned their attention to housing.

They want the city to pour $12 million a year into a capital fund toboost new housing construction. They want the city adopt aninclusionary zoning policy, which would force developers to build units that cater to a range of income levels. And they want government-owned property around light rail and rapid bus stations set aside for affordable housing.

To pay for it all, councillors Mathieu Fleury and Catherine McKenney are suggesting a one per cent levy on the tax bill for the next four years, which would raise about $10 million annually.

It's doubtful they have thesupport of their colleagues for the levy, and Watsonhas already indicated he's against it. The mayor did campaign on bringing in aninclusionary zoning policy, and he has promised to use city land around at least three light rail stations for affordable housing.

5. Snowed under

It's becoming an annual joke among city hall watchersdoes Ottawa ever budget enough money for snow removal?

Yes, but only twice in the last dozenyears.

In 2017, the snow-removal budget was short more than $12 million. For 2018, the city treasurer's office forecast a $4-million shortfall. The updated figure for last year will be known Wednesday.

Clearly, 2019 is off to a snowy, slushystart, with city crews working 24/7 for two weeks.Will council budget enough to deal with this year's snowfall? And should the city be considering increasing its snow-removal standards for sidewalks, bus stops,bikelanesand roadways?

Because that will cost us.