Bank of Canada warns higher rates ahead

The Canadian dollar posted its biggest single-day gain since July Tuesday as the Bank of Canada warned that it will be raising interest rates.

The dollar closedup 1.58 cents to 100.12 cents US.

The Bank of Canada kept its key lending rate unchanged Tuesday, but warned that its low-rate policy has a limited future.

The bank heldthe overnight rate at 0.25 per cent, as economists had expected.

Butwith the economy recovering and inflation running above the bank's two per cent target, the need for rock-bottom lending rates "is now passing," it said in a statement.

The extent and timing of any change in the key rate "will depend on the outlook for economic activity and inflation,"the bank said. The bank also notedgrowth is "proceeding somewhat more rapidly" than it expected earlier this year, increasing the chance of a rate rise in the early summer.

"Simply put, this statement marks a dramatic change in tone by the bank, and doesn't rule out possible 50 basis point moves," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, in a commentary.

Porter predicted a June rate hike is now "likely," adding thatthe central bank is clearly much more concerned aboutinflation than previously indicated.

The bank sets a target level for the overnight rate, which is often calledthekey interest rate or key policy rate because it indicates the bank's thinking about the economy.

'Simply put, this statement marks a dramatic change in tone by the bank, and doesn't rule out possible 50 basis point moves.' Douglas Porter, BMO Capital Markets

The overnight rateis the interest rate major financial institutions charge each other for one-day loans.

The ratehas been ata very low 0.25 per centsince April 2009, when it was cut from 0.50 per cent as the recession worsened. It wasat arecent peak of 4.5 per cent in October 2007.

The bank's "extraordinary policy" of ultra-low rates was introduced to boost therecovery, the statement said.

The bank is forecasting growth of 3.7 per cent this year, reflectingstronger global activity, strong housing activity in Canada and the banksconclusion that policy stimulusadvanced some spendinginto late 2009 and early 2010.

It's forecasting that Canadian economicgrowthwill slow to 3.1 per cent in 2011 and 1.9 per cent in 2012.

Competing pressures

Bank governor Mark Carney is juggling competing pressures: the need to control inflation with a higher rate; the need to keep the cost of loans low to encourage business and consumer borrowing; and the strong dollar.

A bank rate increase could push the dollar even higher, hurting exports and jobs. While recognizing that growth is strong, the bank warned Tuesday about economicnegatives: "the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar, Canadas poor relative productivity performance and the low absolute level of U.S. demand."

AlthoughCarneyexpressed concern about inflation in March, the bank said it is expecting the rate to ease slightly in the second quarter, and remain slightly above thetarget two per cent rate this yearbefore easing in the second half of 2011.