Britain counts the cost of Brexit as negotiations with Europe begin: Don Pittis

British Prime Minister Theresa May has no time to dawdle. Despite confusion at home, the clockon Brexit is ticking, and as talks with Europe begin, things aren't going quite the wayMay expected.

With the assertive-soundingif emptyslogan "Brexitmeans Brexit," the Conservative leader boldly pulled the trigger on Article 50back in March, beginning a negotiation process with a firm two-year deadline.

May talked tough. Her surprisemove to call a snap election was expected to strengthen her hand at thetable. But the strategyflopped.

Now, with her minority government struggling and her own future as leader in doubt,May's negotiating team isunder pressure.

The deadline can be extended, but only with the unanimous support of every member state of the European Union. At this point such an extension is far from a sure thing.

Theoretically, as hardlineBrexiters have suggested, Britain could just walk away from the talks, unilaterally declaring its independence as a sovereign nation and offering this message to thoseslippery continentals: get stuffed.

But now that the deal is pressing, British businesses, interest groups and ordinary people are beginning to realize how much is at stake.Walking away would leave too much on the table.

One of the most obvious points of contention as the talks begin is cash, with the European team estimating that Britain will owe something in the order of 100 billionwhen the deal closes in 2019. British hardlinerssay au contraire, insisting Europe owes Britain cash.

"It's more like leaving a gym or a club," the London Telegraph quoted one unnamedsource as saying."You don't continue to pay for other people to use the facilities after you leave."

Skipping out?

Of course that's not true if you were part owner of the club and had run up large debts during the 40 years you were a member, then skipped out without covering your share.

As a first stage, the Europeans aren't asking for an absolute figure. All they want to do is agree to aformula to calculate what that figure would be.

And while paying a bill oftens of billions of pounds attractsoutrage in the tabloids, other costs to Britain will be much more significant.

• Canada-EU trade deal's July 1 target threatened by new cheese dispute

Trade and finance are two items on the agenda that have real measurable costs. According to the British Office of National Statistics, in 2016the U.K. exported 44 per cent of its goods and services, tarifffree,to other European countries. That's 240 billion worth of exports out of a total of550 billion.

Walking away from Europe without an accordcould leave Britain ina worsetrade position with the EU than Canada oncethe CETAfree trade deal kicks in.

From its historic position as a global hub of finance, Britain specifically the City of London as its financial district is called hastaken the role of Europe's business capital as well, issuing European bonds and hostingsavvy traders from all the countries of the EU. The world does much of its European business there.

Already companies are reconsidering the need for theirLondon headquarters to conduct European affairs. Without a friendly deal on taxes, regulations and residency, The City of London could see its business shrink as bankers and the professionals that serve them go elsewhere. High-paying jobs would be lost.

Savings lost

One financial cost has already hit every British citizen. The value ofpersonal savings fell by tens of billions and spending powerdeclined sharply after the pound fell in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Last week British retail sales also fell sharply, with analysts blaming it on an inflation rate that has climbedto 2.5 per cent. Central bank governor Mark Carney was nearly forced to raise interest rates but has delayed for now.

Other costs are far harder to measure.

Many British citizenshave recreational properties or retirement homes on the continent. As members of the EU, residency rules, property ownership, taxes and health care provisions are all clearly laid out. A hostile negotiation could threaten those.

For young people, the opportunitiesto work or study in other parts of Europe could disappear. The status of the border with Ireland and the pro-European sentiment in Scotland have yet to be resolved.

Perhaps the worst part of the separation process will be the loss of European influence on dowdy, parochial British politics.

ContinentalEurope hasemerged as an economic hot spot. Unemployment is falling. In Emmanuel Macron, France has a new young, dynamic, outward-looking pro-Europeanleader anda strongmajority.

Unlikelysaviour

Yetagainst her every intention,May's stumble may have saved Britain from becomingisolated and inward-looking, the new 1960s Portugal celebrating its lost empire as the country crumbles.

Instead of showing the strength of herhardline position, with her failure at the polls, May has succeeded in weakening Britain'sintransigent, hard-Brexitnegotiating position.

With Labour nipping at her heels, with newly empowered pro-Europeans among conservative MPsand in the House of Lords, with the dynamic voice of British youth crying out to retain links with Europe, Mayor her eventual replacementcouldbe forced to make a compromise deal that will serveBritain better.

Follow Don on Twitter @don_pittis

More analysis from Don Pittis