What the Boeing Max 8 groundings could mean for summer travel

With summer fast approaching, vacation plans beckon.

But as the high season draws near for Canada's travelindustry, there's been little rest for the country's largest airlines, Air Canada and WestJet, which have been busy preparing for the holidays minus their Boeing 737 Maxjetliners.

The planes have all been grounded since March following two fatal crashes involving the model, and there's still notimetablefor when they'll return to service.

The situation has prompted Air Canada and WestJet to shuffle operations to accommodate travellers through the weeks, and perhaps months, to come.

Their efforts havesome travel agents confidentair travel this summer won't seem much different than last year.

But if the Max aircraft aren't cleared for takeoffin the next few weeks, other industrywatchers anticipate seat capacitywill tighten thisholiday season and not just in Canada.

If travel demand is strong, fares could see a little upward bounce, saidindependent aviation analyst Rick Erickson.

"If you're in a circumstance where you can make some decisions now on your travel, I'd get out and do it."

The 737 Max jetliner's flight control system has beenunder scrutiny following two deadly crashes within a six-month period: aLion Air flight off the coast of Indonesia in October and an Ethiopian Airlines flight inMarch.

The two crashes killed a total of 346 people, including 18 Canadians on board the Ethiopian Airlines flight.

In March, Canada joined other countries worldwide in grounding all Boeing 737 Max aircraft until further notice. In addition to satisfying all safety concerns, Transport Canada is requiring Canadian airlines thatoperate the Boeing 737 Max 8 and 9 aircraft to implement new proceduresand provideadditional crew training.

Air Canada's 24 Max 8 jetliners comprise about 20 per cent of its narrow-body fleet and carry between 9,000 and 12,000 passengers per day.

WestJet has 13 Max 8 aircraft, which makeup seven per cent of the airline's total fleet and represent10 per cent of its total capacity this year.

Air Canada announced in late April that it has removed the737 Max from its flight schedule through to Aug1.

The airlinesays it had between threeand four per cent less seat capacity in the first quarter of the year due to the grounding.

To manage the shortfall, the airline has beenadjusting route operating times and flying fewer flights between destinations but with larger aircraft.

The airline says it has also spedupits plans to add aircraft and extended leases on planes that were originally scheduledto leave the fleet.

'Full confidence'

Air Canada spokeswoman Angela Mah said in an emailearlierthis week thatthe airline is making arrangements withLufthansa and finalizing arrangements with other airlines "to temporarily operate certain flights on Air Canada's behalf."

"Customers can book their travel on Air Canada with full confidence," Mah said.

WestJet is also taking steps to mitigatethe impact.

At the company's annual meeting last week, CEO Ed Sims said the airline is utilizing all of its available aircraft as "heavily" as it can.

"We had a number of ... aircraft that were due for reconfiguration; we were changing the seats inside those aircraft," he told reporters.

"We've now cancelled that reconfiguration and making sure that we have all available aircraft."

Sims said the grounding of the Max 8becomes more challenging as thehigh season approaches. Asked what the situation might mean for flight availability, Sims said it was too early to tell.

"I think people are going to have to ensure that they're booking earlier and are trying to adapt a more flexible approach to the time and even potentially the destination of their choice," he said.

Addressing airfares, he said WestJetis operating as it would under normal circumstances.

"We have not really re-evaluated the opportunity simply because there are fewer seats available," he said. "We want to make sure that we maintain competitive airfares for travellers even through peak season."

Still, some observers say this probably won't be the season for flyers to drag their feet on booking their flights.

"I think if you're going to be travelling in summer for sure you know there's a wedding you're going to or something book right now," said Barry Prentice, a professor ofsupply chain management at the University of Manitoba.

"Book it, because I don't think it's necessarily going to get any cheaper, at least not in July."

'Not as dire as some may expect'

Still, travel agents say because of theefforts of the airlines, they don't believe there will be a serious capacity crunch this summer.

Allison Wallace, a spokesperson for the Flight Centre Travel Group in Vancouver, lauded the airlinesfor the work they've done.

"The carriers have done an amazing job of minimizing the impact and completely reshuffling their networks to operate as close to original planned capacity as possible, so the situation is not asdireas some may expect," she said in an e-mail.

Sandra Tompkins, a travel consultant with TierOne Travel in Calgary, said people haven't been booking any earlier than usual so far, and there are still a lot ofoptions.

"There's a lot of seat sales that have been coming out one after the other,"she said.

"I still think that there's going to be plenty of availability for people booking."