Quebec vote shows it's no longer 'the economy, stupid': Don Pittis

In thevote that gave us the original Free Trade Agreement in 1988, Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney won the election with the slogan "Jobs, jobs, jobs."

Only four years later, Bill Clinton crushed hisincumbent opponent, Republican President George H.W. Bush, with the slogan"It's the economy, stupid."

But if that strategy worked three decades ago, it doesn't seem to be working now. In fact, there is increasing evidence that people frequentlyend up voting against their own economic interests.

The Quebec economy, booming in a way it has not for years, wassimply not enough for voters to re-elect the Liberal government of Philippe Couillard. And Quebec is just a single example. There is evidence the same thing is happening around the world.

Voting against yourself

Arguably, the U.S. economy under formerpresident Barack Obama's Democrats had been recovering sharply before they were ousted by the Republicans. Next door to Quebec, Ontario's economy was also strong when the Liberalsgot the boot from Doug Ford's Tories.

Britain's Brexit vote to leave the European Union has already createdthe slowdownpredicted by many experts, including Bank of England governorMark Carney, who warned it would lead to inflation and unemployment. Large numbers of poor people in the U.S. continue to support President DonaldTrumpeven though his tax cuts for the rich did nothing for them.

"This disconnect between personal financial interest and partisan lean may be partly explained by the fact that increasingly, other things matter more than money when it comes to political affiliation," said The Economist when it tried to explain why so many in the U.S. voteagainst their own economic best interests.

In the U.K. something similar happened as wealthy urban elites, who live where immigrants are plentiful,favoured remaining within the European Union, whereas poorer rural and small-town voters, where the number of immigrants is small,supported Brexitat least partly on the grounds of reducing immigration.

It is almost impossible to be sure exactly why Quebecers voted the way they did, says Ming Li, an economist at Montreal's Concordia University whohas studied the psychology of voting.

Irrational voting

For one thing, a vote for the winning Coalition Avenir Qubec was by no means a vote against the economy. The CAQplatform, while untried, is full of things the partyexpects tomake people better off, from tax cuts to better pre-school.

Li also says strategic voting may have come into play, as longtime Parti Qubcoissupporterslooked for someplaceto park their vote as that party sagged.As in Ontario, the Liberals had been in for a long time and many people wanted a change.

An expert in, among other things, economic game theory, Li has tried to decipher some of the complex set of reasons that voters use to make their decisions. And according to his research, peoplemay not votefor the reasons you think. In other words, people do not add up all their economic interests and see which party will fulfil them best.

"There is definitely the theory that voters are not necessarily rational," says Li.

Instead, election psychology may be an expression of dissatisfaction with the government you have lived with for several years. The more grievances you have, over things like immigration, or taxes, or health care, the more likely you are willing to ignore the good things the government has been doing for you.

"The governing party might sell how good the economy is," says Li, "but then the challenger can always find something (voters) are not satisfied with."

And that may be a lesson for coming elections, including theone quickly approachingin Alberta, and even the federal electionjust over a year away. Economic well-being and stability just aren't enough to satisfy voters.

Li says that is the challenger's advantage. While criticizing a bad economy can help the challenger win, a strong economy maysimply not be enough to helpan incumbent to cling to power.

And being a little bit angry at the government that has, on the whole, run things pretty well can mean voters are willing to roll the dice on a brand new kind of governmentwith anunproven strategy.

Follow Don on Twitter @don_pittis