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BusinessAnalysis

After the biggest stock market sell-off in history, what's next for Facebook?

After a market meltdown this week that saw Facebook lose $100 billion of shareholder value, it's worth asking whether the giant could be headed albeit very slowly for the same fate that befell its high-tech ancestors like Myspace.

Social media giant posts big profit, but other numbers show potential long-term problems

Facebook still earns massive profits, but the company learned a harsh lesson this week about managing investor expectations.

When Facebook posted its quarterly results on Wednesday, the stock market sell-off that followed was dramatic. By the time the market closed the next day, the company had lost $100 billion in shareholder value. It wasthe biggest sell-off in Wall Street history.

A market meltdown like thatinevitably left the company's investors wondering"What's next for Facebook?"

After all, it wasn't a set ofugly numbersthat sent investors to the exit. The company still made gobs of money more than $5 billion in profit, in fact. But the sell-off was sparked by fears that the endless growth may soon come to an end.

To Ramona Pringle, a CBC columnist and media professorat Ryerson University in Toronto, the company's main problemisthe same one that has felledmany of its technologicalancestors you're cool, until you're not. And to young people at least, the world's biggest social media company is decidedlynot.

"Talk to anyone under 22," she says, "and they're not on Facebook."

To the younger generation, Facebook isreminiscent of that old joke about a high school party it's all fun and games until somebody's mom shows up.

Whatever young users the service does have, Pringle says, they basically just use it to "check in with their mom and share photos with their mom."

And the generation that follows is even less likely to sign up in droves, she says.

For a company that sold investors on its prospects based on endless growth, that's a problem. Facebook use is still growing in Asia, Africa andthe Middle East. But it's declining in Europeand basically flat in North America by far the company's two most lucrative markets.

"At least when it comes to North America," Pringle says,"they kind ofmaxed out."

Scandal 'boomerang'

Which is part of the reason why investor Ophir Gottliebsays this week's sell-off makes sense.

The president and CEO of Capital MarketLaboratoriessays Facebookgot punished in part because of lingering fears from theCambridge Analytica scandal, which revealed Facebook allowed an outside consulting firm to collect personal data onmillions of usersand sell it off to try toinfluence elections in the U.K. and the U.S.

"This is really where Facebook's lack of transparency during the data scandal and the election scandal is now goingtoboomerang and hit them," Gottliebsays.

Despite the eye-popping profit figure of $5.1 billion,Gottlieb rattles off a series of metrics thatshow why the stock plunge was at least partly justified based on the numbers alone.

The company increased its headcount by almost 50 per cent as it went on a hiring spree to make good onits post-scandal promises to protect data privacy. But by its own admission, its revenue growth is slowing to about 25 per cent a year, which has pushed the company's profit margin to about half of what it used to be.

"Add upslower user growth, slowing revenue growth, and expenses growingfaster than revenue for several years out," Gottliebsays, "and that's a recipe forabout a 20 per centstock drop."

'Elephant in the room'

Those might be fixable, short-term problems, but the company is still left with what he calls "the elephant in the room" people are justgetting fed up with Facebook.

"We don't really know if the slowing user growth is because people are getting turned off," he says, "orif people are dropping accounts because they don't feel safe with theirdata."

Pringle says in the digital world, no company not even Facebook is "too big to fail." Itspredecessors such as Myspace, AOL and others all hadcomparable reach to Facebook in their day.

But they all met their demiseslowly, as rivals ate away at their dominance. As Gottlieb put it,"They tend to fall off because their network becomes less monopolistic over time."

That could happen to Facebook, too, but Gottlieb isn't ready to count the company out just yet.

"They don't necessarily have a plan they know will work," he says, "[but] it's not the end of the world for Facebook."