Ontario's NDP must face the cruel economic realities of government: Don Pittis

Only a few months ago, aNew Democratic government in Ontario was being ruled out by everyone but NDPpartisans.

Buta shift in the polls is showing thatthe people of Ontarioand the people of Canadamustface a new possibility.

As Liberal party support plunges, Ontario voters are left with a choice between Ford Nation and the NDP.

NDP's plausible prospect

CBCpolls show Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives still in the lead.

Butsuddenly there is a plausible prospectthe country's most populous province, the country's centre of finance and home to its biggest industrial base, will once again be governed by Canada's party of the centre left.

Of course one consideration is what that wouldmean for the provincial and national economy.

The other consideration is how taking power wouldalter the party's own policy. Experience elsewhere in the country shows when New Democrats go from no-hope to power their outlook changes. And some party supporters may not be happy.

To the provincial conservative leader, there is certainly nohope of changing the policiesof "aradical NDP that wants to raise your taxes, raise your hydro rates, raise gas prices, make it unaffordableto live and work."

But, of course, it is Ford who has given the NDP its opportunity. Before he entered the scene, signs that the PC party had moved toward the centre made a Progressive Conservative win a near certainty.

Ford's populismand bombasticrhetoric, withits obvious resemblance to thestyle of U.S. President Donald Trump, has many Ontario voterswho might not see themselves asnatural NDPsupporters considering that alternative.

Strategic choice

The Liberals, the traditionalbeneficiaries of a polarized electorate in Canada'sthree-party system, have themselves created a new polarity, slipping so far in the pollsthat if voting day approaches without a rebound it will make a ballot castfor Kathleen Wynnethe equivalent ofan abstention.

When the provincial Tories seemeda shoo-in, voting Green or even sticking with the Liberals to show you weren't a quitter may have been a reasonable option.

But if it looks likeFord and Andrea Horwathare going head to head in the final days of the campaign, many will find it hard not to make a strategic choice.

And the chance, no matter how distant, that Horwath and her party could actually win may be already changing the way the NDPis expressing itself. The party's radical fringe who might want to, say, nationalize the banks,jail corporate leaders or ban Remembrance poppies is being locked in the attic.

And according to aneye-witness to a previous NDPshift from no-hope togovernment, that transition makes for an even bigger rethink.

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"Being in government has a way of changing not just a party's,butthe ministers' and the premier's perspective, because they are no longer justcampaigning politicians," says TrevorTombe,a University of Calgary economics professor who lived throughRachelNotley'sunexpectedNDPwin in Alberta.

Business booster

For example, despite having many anti-pipeline people in the party before taking office, Alberta's NDPleader has revealed herself as astrong and capablepipeline supporter.

Far from being anti-business or anti-resource-sector, as they were portrayed by supporters of the right, the NDP have become careful economic stewards, he says.

Taxes on the rich rose more than PC leader Jim Prentice was going to raise themand minimum wage went up, but the prediction of radical moves on oil and gas royalties and diversification away from petroleum were unfounded. The party made its crucial decisions by strikingpanels of unbiased experts including from business.

"They have been moderate, and you could have seen any party doing it," says Tombe.

In British Columbia, while being portrayed by Notleyand others as anti-pipeline fanatics beholden to the Greens who hold the balance of power, BC's NDPleader John Horgan has already altered many of his pre-election plans to satisfy business interests.

The Site C hydro electric power plant which the party campaigned against is now part of the new government's policy,a move that has outraged many party supporters.

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Of course in B.C., as in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where the NDPhas often served long periods in government, once in powerthe party moves closer to the centre as it struggles to deal with same economic forces faced by parties of the centre right.

Keepingtaxes low enough to prevententrepreneursfrom relocating. Promoting the companiesthat create jobs. Keeping one eye on the rating agencies. Holdingenough in the piggy bank for an inevitable downturn. Reining in the expectations of public service unions and public welfare advocates who can always find ways to spend money.

An NDPgovernment will still be subject to the entrenched power of Bay Street and the real estate industry, the automotive industry and the pro-business press. It will still have to work with the Feds, the cities, the other provinces and our unpredictable southern neighbour.

In a desperate bid to outbid their opponents, both Wynne and Ford have made their ownunrealistic promiseseither to spend or cut taxes or both in ways that many economists say are uncosted and potentially unsustainable.

IfHorwathand theNDPareto win thiselection, they willbe forced to adjust their policies in the face of theeconomic realities of government. Any other winner will have to do the same.

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