No plans to change course in B.C. as COVID-19 rebounds to peak levels. Here's why

British Columbia is at a critical pointfive months along its pandemic timeline: For the first time since COVID-19 took hold, case projections have rebounded topeak levels. And that's amplifying voicesquestioningwhy the backslide isn't enoughto ratchet up restrictions.

When B.C. spiked early on, a state of emergency was declared and society was shuttered. Now, daily rates are accelerating,on pace to surpass the initial surge yet there is no ominousforeshadowing of broad shutdowns to come.

The trends are troubling. The latest projectionsshow the province's curve could climbat a faster rate in September than it did in March.

"We are on an upward trajectory. That is concerning, but it's not a predictive model," cautioned Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry during her epidemiological modelling update on Thursday.

Initially, B.C. was peaking at about70 to 90 new cases on a daily basis. The past three days in a row have seen similarcase counts for the first time since.

It's fuelling the call for another crackdown. After all, the first time B.C. saw numbers surge like this, schools were closed. Now, they're about to fully reopen.

Early on, hospitals were cleared out in an extraordinary moveto make roomfor a potential influx in COVID-19 patients. Now, surgeries have restarted in full force.

In March, people were told to stay inside as much as possible and not see their friends. Diningservice inside restaurants was banned. Travelling outside one's own city was strongly discouraged.

Yet a reversal back to those sweeping measures isn't being publicly considered by the government at the moment. And looking at the"then" versus"now" numbers, there are parallels in thecharts. Butnot in the policies.

Below the surface of the data lies a provincial strategy that's entirely different and there's a reason. Several reasons, actually.

Contact tracing

Health officials have seen this next wave coming and bolstered their line of defence to brace for it. B.C. is banking on a beefed-up teamof contact tracers to keep thepandemic under control.

The province is hiring 500 more health-care professionals to triple its team of infectious disease detectives who followthevirus and track down potentialexposures. It's rooted in an attempt tomanage the transmission rather than locking down to eliminate the spread entirely.

The strategy itself traces back to the provincial health officer's months-old hints ofa "philosophical point" in the pandemic:the juncture wherereopening society will trigger a highercaseload. The key is to keep it manageable.

Protecting the elderly

The source of the surge in new cases has swung the pendulum from one side of the age demographic to the other.

Initially, it was the elderly who accounted for mostof B.C.'s caseload, with the virus tearing through long-term care homes. It killed nearly 100 care-home residentsprovincewide. Several more also died in assisted-living facilities

But theoutbreaks in those facilities have gradually subsided, easing the risk to the most vulnerable so much sothat in-person visits have now resumed, allowing loved ones to reunite after severalheart-wrenching months apart.

Low hospitalization rates

Most importantly, hospitalization rates remain static. Thisis a critical metric health officialsare watching because the overarching goal is not to overwhelm the health-care system.

At its peak, 150 peoplewere hospitalized with COVID-19 in B.C., with 70 of them in intensive care.

Currently, only 12 patients are in the hospital provincewide, four of whom are in ICU.

This week's updatedmodelling underscoredwhat's been clear for a while: Numbers are rising quickly and they're being driven by young people, although fewer of them are ending up in the hospital.

The data reveals a broad increase since June in the number of infections in people in their 20s and 30s. The bulk of those cases stem from social interactions in environments that breed transmission:indoors and withclose contact for longer periods of time.

"We've moved from having household contactsto having a shift in the connections and exposure sites where younger people are gettinginfected," Henry said. "Places like bars, clubs, parties and social events that we know have been an issue in the last few weeks."

Tougher tone

While the province'soverall approach hasn't changed drastically in the last few weeks, its messaging has.

Quieting critics calling the government's approach too soft, Health Minister Adrian Dix came out with his firmest message yet around enforcement.

"If you have banquet halls where a private party takes place, you will be seeing environmental health officers and people in public health," he warned Thursday.

It echoes the premier's tougher-than-usual talk just the day before.

"If people continue to disregard the rules the rest of British Columbians are following, then we will of course take action," John Horgan said. "We're going to be looking hard at enforcement ... starting with warnings, then getting into more severe penalties."

There was no elaboration on what exactly that might be, but the goal is clear: Target the problem areas and trigger another round of shutdown-style measures only as a last resort.

But what if it doesn't work?

Left unsaid by Horgan, Dixor Henry is what happens if their plan doesn't work.

Because while the government has consistently said itexpected an increase in cases once we reopened in Phase 3, the goal was a gentle increase based on our interactions reverting to 60 per cent of normal not 70 per cent, which is where we arenow.

And the plan wasn't to have cases double every two weeks from about10 a day at the beginning of July, to 20 by mid-month, 40 at the beginning of August and about80 now.

It also wasn't to have active cases triple in a single month. And the plan definitely wasn't to have the rise happen in the weeks right before school restarts, stoking anxieties.

Because if it continues, B.C. has the type of exponential growth thatcontact tracers can't keep under wraps. Stopping that requires a change in behaviour among certain demographics.

The government is betting that change can happen through tweaking regulations in bars and recruiting celebrities like Ryan Reynolds and Seth Rogen to make public service announcements instead of political scoldings.

If they're wrong, a lot of goodwill they've built up through this pandemic will evaporate almost as quickly as cases have gone up.