B.C. NDP surpasses Campbell's Liberals in latest poll

A new poll suggests 58 per cent of B.C. residents think it's time for a new party to take the provincial reins of power, while only 29 per cent said the Liberals should be re-elected in the next provincial election scheduled for May 2009.

The poll by Angus Reid Stategies, released Wednesday, also put British Columbia's NDP neck and neck with the governing B.C. Liberal Party if an election were held tomorrow, with 41 per cent of the respondents saying they would vote for the NDP, 38 per cent choosing the Liberal Party and 14 per cent backing the Green Party of B.C.

While the NDP might be pleased with the results, the three per cent lead was not necessarily statistically significant, according to the pollster, because the margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 3.5 per cent 19 times out of 20.

The poll was conducted using a using an online survey among a random selected representative sample of 802 adult residents of British Columbia between Aug. 21 to 25.

'It's a tie,' says pollster

Mario Canseco of Angus Reid said that while the results do not suggest the NDP has a "phenomenal lead," it does indicate that the political tides in B.C. maybe changing.

"Technically it could be a tie," said Canseco. "It's a tight race, something we did not see three or four months ago when the Liberals had a lead of about five to eight per cent."

Canseco attributed the NDP's gains to widespread voter dissatisfaction with Premier Gordon Campbell's unpopular carbon tax and pay bonuses for government executive bureaucrats, rather than any improvement by NDP Leader Carole James.

The poll found 57 per cent of the respondents disapproved of Campbell's performance, compared with 38 per cent who disapproved of the performance by James.

"He's not doing well all, particularly for someone in the middle of a second mandate. He's not supported by one-quarter of voters in British Columbia," said Canseco, referring to survey results that found only 18 per cent of respondents found the premier honest and trustworthy.

Forty-three per cent said the province is on the wrong track when handling provincial affairs that matter to British Columbians.

Health care topped the election issues that concern the respondents, followed by the economy, tax relief, leadership and the environment.

Online panel polling methods questioned

The poll was conducted by the firm using a relatively new online polling method.

The 802 respondents were randomly selected from a larger panel of 100,000 Canadians registered with the polling company, to create a representative sample of British Columbians, according to Canseco.

But not all polling companies fully support the polling method.

Evi Mustel of the Mustel Group, a Vancouver based polling company, said because of the way online polling groups are put together, it is impossible to determine the actual margin of error for the poll.

Furthermore, Mustel said the polling industry actually frowns upon firms publishing margins of error for online polls.

That's because online panels might not be truly representative, explained Mustel, because one in four households in Canada does not have an internet connection, and those that sign up for the online panels tend to work less and have lower levels of education than the national average.

Telephone polls are more accurate because a higher percentage of Canadians still have a telephone connection in their home.

Canseco said Angus Reid has used the new online polling method with considerable accuracy in five provincial elections, predicting the final results within the margin of error for 21 of the 22 contending parties.