Election 2015: Re-drawn B.C. ridings potential game changers

Re-vamped elections ridings in B.C. are poising the province to be the final decider in this race, making Oct. 19a potentiallylate night for result watchers.

Part of the reason B.C. has become such a battleground is due to the reconfiguration of this year's electoral map, which leaves a lot of uncertainty over who will win.

"When the new ridings were created, I think there was a supposition that the Conservatives would be the beneficiaries," said University of the Fraser Valley political science professor Hamish Telford. "But I think the new ridings out in Surrey and Delta areas are shaping up to be very strong two or even three-way races which are very difficult to call at the moment."

The new riding of Delta is a case study for that dynamic.

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Although Delta officially contains only the City of Delta in its boundaries, that doesn't mean it is without diversity.

For example, South Delta is comprised of of the suburbs of Ladner and Tsawwassen with theirfishing and farming-driven economies.

They have historically been Tory strongholds with Conservativecandidates controlling the seat since the creation of the Delta-Richmond East riding in 2003.

Last election was no different with Conservative candidate Kerry-Lynne Findlay winning the riding with a commanding 54 per cent of votes cast. Findlay is running on behalf of the Conservatives in Delta this year, and she likes her chances.

"If we had the same riding boundaries in 2011 as we did now, the conservatives still would've taken the seat under me," she said. "So I'm cautiously optimistic, but I take nothing for granted."

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The north is a whole different ball game. It was the NDP that reigned supreme in this location last federal election with Jinny Sims eking out a victory over her Liberal competitor by less than a thousand votes.

But now Sims is campaigning in Surrey and first time federal candidate Jeremy Leveque is vying for the seat on behalf of the New Democrats.

"We've known from the very beginning that Delta is going to be a very competitive race," he said. "The redistribution of the riding changed the game here," he said. "It is a tight race. It's going to be tough. But it's entirely possible that Delta could be the spearhead of the orange wave here in B.C."

The Liberals have also pulled out all the stops to take this crucial swing riding. Like Leveque, their candidate Carla Qualtrough is running in her first federal election.

"I think our riding is really a microcosm of what's been happening all across the country," she said. "Delta voters don't feel like they've been engaged and they don't feel like they've been heard."

Big B.C. influence in this election

Hamish Telford says the new ridings at play in this election could give B.C. a deciding role in the 2015 election not seen since Joe Clark's Progressive Conservatives took power in 1979.

Most of the new ridings are in the Lower Mainland and have traditional supporters of two parties put together in an odd mishmash.

"One that's caught a lot of attention is North Burnaby-Seymour," he said. That riding sees traditional Conservative voters in North Vancouver married to NDP stalwarts in Burnaby, despite being separated by the Burrard Inlet.

And while there have been accusations that North Burnaby-Seymour is an example of gerrymandering by the government, he says, the riding boundaries are determined independently and in fact, the odd boundaries of this riding might not favour the Conservatives at all.

"One of the major issues in the Lower Mainland is pipelines, and I don't think people on either side of the Burrard Inlet are keen to see a massive increase in supertanker traffic through their riding."

At the very least, Telford says, these new ridings might keep the rest of Canada awake on election night they could have to stay up late to see if B.C. changes the outcome.

To hear the full story, click the audio labelled:New ridings in B.C. could have big impact on election night