Computer simulations give avalanche forecasters deeper insight, says researcher

A researcher says new computer simulationscould help predict avalanches and aid forecastersin keeping people safe in the backcountry.

The simulated snow-cover models can accurately detect and track avalanche hazards, according to Simon Horton, a Simon Fraser University post-doctoral fellow and forecaster with Avalanche Canada. He waspart of an internationalteam of scientists from Canada, France and Switzerlandthatdeveloped the models.

"Typically, an avalanche forecaster relies heavily on observations from the field, people going out and looking at the snow observing weather, and we can't do that at all times in all situations," Horton said. "Some areas, we don't have adequate observations in the field. Other times it's too dangerous to go out.

"But with these simulations, we can do predictions pretty much anywhere at any time."

The researchers looked at 16 years of data on weather conditions, snow cover and avalanchesfrom three sites: Whistler and Rogers Pass in B.C. and WeissfluhjochatDavos, Switzerland.

They used this data to run simulations that could determine avalanche risk and classify avalanche situations.

"Avalanche conditions change really rapidly with evolving weather," Horton said. "These models analyzed specific weather patterns to identify what type of avalanche sizes we have."

The researchers say their simulated avalanches lined up well with the avalanches actually observed at Whistler, Rogers Pass and Weissfluhjoch.

The researchers' findings were published in theFebruary issue of the journal Cold Regions Science and Technology

A spokesperson from Avalanche Canada said in an email that the agency worked with the researchers on the models.

"Indeed, we are using these models as part of our forecasting process," the spokesperson wrote.

Horton believes the models will improve backcountry safety.

"By having more tools to make these forecasts more accurate, precise, localized, we'll hopefully be able to offer better advice for people going out so that they can make safer decisions in the mountains," he said.

Avalanche Canada issued a special avalanche warning for much of B.C. and Western Alberta Thursday.

As of Monday evening, the warning remains in effect.