To spend or to cut? How finances factor into the B.C. election

B.C.'s provincial finances have gone from stable surpluses to deep deficits, and leaders contesting the upcoming election are debating whether the next government should keep spending or seek austerity.

In the latest fiscal update, the province's deficit for the current fiscal year had grown by $1.1 billionto $8.979 billion sincethe 2024-2025 budget was tabled, the highest ever in the province.

Total provincial debt is projected to be $128.6 billion by the end of the fiscal year.

It's created a wedge among political parties vying to form the next government over appropriate revenues and expenditures for much needed services such as health care and infrastructure like schools, transit and roads.

B.C. Conservative Party Leader John Rustad says despite moving the province away from budgets defined by moderate spending tied to inflation and population growth, the B.C. NDP's spending is out of control without the results to justify it.

"When you look across this province over the last seven years, can anybody say that there is anything that is better?" he said at a news event on Tuesday."All of this spending, quite frankly, is just putting our kids and their future in jeopardy as well."

Rustad plans to ramp up economic activity to boost revenues from B.C.'s traditional rich resources such as minerals and forests. He also says balanced budgets are a priority but would take time.

"Our goal is over multiple terms, over two terms, to get back to a balanced approach in British Columbia and bring common sense back."

WATCH | How B.C.'s party leaders are proposing to manage provincial finances:

How finances and B.C.'s budget factor into the provincial election

1 day ago

Duration 4:09

B.C.s finances have gone from stable surpluses to deep deficits, and leaders contesting the provincial election are debating whether the next government should keep spending or seek austerity.

Meanwhile, David Eby, who was premier for the last two budgets, says his government made bold choices not to make deep cuts, intentionally spending to hire new doctors, build new schools and hospitals, and cover emergencies like wildfires.

This year, responding to wildfires across the province added $886 million to the provincial budget, $653 million higher than forecast.

In addressing municipal leaders from across the province in Vancouver in September, Eby said if re-elected, his government's commitment to spending would continue.

"Now is the time that we need to be building, not cutting," he told delegates at the Union of B.C. Municipalities Convention.

"We've got to build the schools and the hospitals and the roads and the transit systems and the infrastructure that makes it possible for our communities to be successful to have that quality of life that every British Columbian deserves."

Economists suggest both approaches pitched by Rustad and Eby can work,as balanced budgets free up money from servicing debt to be used elsewhere, while borrowing to spend also can bolster the economy to a place where it can recover.

"B.C. could run, you know, large deficits for a few years before we got into anything that would be considered trouble," said Marc Lee, a senior economist in the B.C. office of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

Lee says B.C.'s debt as a percentage of its gross domestic producta measure often used by investors and credit rating agencies to analyze a government's ability to manage its debt loadis still distant from more debt-ridden provinces such as Quebec and Ontario.

In a snapshot from August, B.C.'s debt-to-GDP was 18.6 per cent, which was higher than in past years when it was around 15 per cent, but still better than all but two provinces.

Lee says spending, with a slower return to balance, can help B.C.'s economy.

"Generally, it's a good thing for governments to invest in their citizens," he said."If you're increasing your debt because you're educating more people and you're building more homes or hospitals, some of that stuff is actually good. It increases your capacity as an economy."

Ben Eisen, a senior fellow in fiscal and provincial prosperity who studies with the Fraser Institute, is less enthusiastic. He says B.C. is incurring debt faster than any other province and will require more tax dollars to service it.

"Most people would like to see it spent on something other than more and more money going to debt service, but that's exactly what's going to happen if the province continues to routinely run multi-billion dollar deficits," he said.

He's also worried that B.C. is too quickly increasing its debt-to-GDP ratio, which is forecast to reach 26 per cent next year.

The Finance Ministry says B.C. continues to have some of the best credit ratings among provinces, including the only triple-A rating.

The current budget also has $3.9 billion in contingencies, meaning if none arise, that money could bring down the forecastdebt instead, said Lee.

Complicating matters, though, are the tax cuts that both the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives have promised during their campaign.

Eby says the NDP would implement an annual tax cut of $1,000 for the average family starting next year, which the party said would cost $1.8 billion in 2025 and then $3 billion per year after that.

Meanwhile,Rustad is promising a tax relief plan for renters and homeowners starting at $1,500 per month in 2026 and peaking at $3,000 per month in 2029. The party has not explained how it would pay for the program.

The B.C. Green Party is not proposing tax cuts if it forms government but says it would increase the marginal tax rate for B.C.'s wealthiest citizens.

It says a new marginal tax rate of 22.5 per cent for incomes over $350,000 per year would raise an additional $394.5 million per annum.

The party said it would also raise an additional $938 million by taxing extensive wealth through property and an additional $4.1 billion per year with a new marginal tax rate of 18 per cent for corporate profits over $1 billion per year.

"So you won, capitalism, good jobbut we're going to start taxing over a billion in that extra profit," Green Leader Sonia Furstenau said in announcing the party's platform on Tuesday.