Questions linger about B.C. Premier Christy Clark's future

It's the job Christy Clark never dreamed of leader of the Official Opposition. But it's the job B.C.'s outgoing-premier is about to get.

Following a confidence vote last Thursday, Clark has become the first B.C. premier to be defeated in the legislature, only to have her chief opponent offered her job.

While Clark remains premier until NDP Leader John Horgan is officially sworn in the coming days, all eyes are now on what Clark will do next.

"I intend to stay on," said Clark on June 8, suggesting she may take on the position of Opposition leader.

"Whatever job voters give me and the House gives me in this parliament, I will take."

But for how long?

When asked at the beginning of June whether she plans to lead the B.C. Liberals into the next election, Clark did not answer directly. Nor did she mention her future when addressing the media after the announcement of premier-designate John Horgan.

Clark came into the May election with a solid majority, butwas reduced to 43 seats, one short of having control of the 87-seat legislature .

Many leaders have left politics in similar situations, including former prime minister Paul Martin. But so far, there have been no cracks exposed in the B.C. Liberal caucus.

That could change.

The government's June 22speech from the throne, which dramatically shiftedthe B.C. Liberals' policy approach, led to some frustration from party supporters.

Wide pendulum swing

The speech included promises such asadding 60,000 new child-care spaces andgetting rid of tolls in Metro Vancouver bridges, something that would cost billions of dollars over the next few years and test the party's focus on fiscal prudence.

One of Clark'sstaunchest supporters, former health minister Terry Lake, questioned whether the "pendulum swing"was too wide.

"While we are a coalition of conservatives and liberals in the B.C. Liberal Party, one thing we all agree on is to be fiscally responsible and not pass that onto future generations," said Lake.

"I do worry that some of the items in the throne speech would be difficult to manage in a year-over-year basis."

Parties need to be ready

But with the margins so tight in the B.C. Legislature, it could be an unwise time to think about replacing a leader. The Greens and NDP signed a four-year agreement. Butwith a 44-43 split, every vote will be close, and the government may not stay in place that long.

Because of that, the Liberals are best served with Clark ready to spring into an election any time.

Martyn Brown, onetime chief of staff toformer premier Gordon Campbell, says the longer the NDP/Green alliance governs, the stronger the likelihood thatClark will be replaced.

"I think it's pretty clearshe does right now [have the support] and she intends to stay on. She'll be hoping for another election if the NDP and Greens can't make it work, and I think she's going to be disappointed on that front," said Brown.

Clark also has the advantage of noone publicly scrambling to take her job.

Justice Minister Andrew Wilkinson,Health Minister Mary Polak and Transportation Minister Todd Stone are threeof Clark's frequentdefenders and willbe important players for the Liberals in opposition.

Lake is happily out of politics for now and has no intention of returning soon. Former finance minister Kevin Falcon, Clark'srival for the 2011 leadership of the party, has also indicated he is not interested in running.

Outside of provincial politics, there are some intriguing options.

One is former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore, who is a senior business adviser atDentons, an international law firm.

"Iwas in federal office for 15 years, fiveterms," Moore said, "I am enjoying the private sector and I am going to remain there."

Tough transition to Opposition

But there are others who may take the leap from federal politics if the opportunity presents itself, including current MP and former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts.

Moore saidthe transition from a period of long-time governing to Opposition can be rocky.

"When you transition over to Opposition there is a learning curve" added Moore. "Even the Liberal Party federally, after StephenHarper became prime minister, it took them a while to become a good Opposition party."