Calgary building permits up but economist urges caution

Calgary officials saw a record spike in commercial and residential building permit applications last month.

Developers were likely rushing to beat an Alberta deadline for a new national energy codethat could add to costs, but some industry experts say they are still expecting a slowdown.

Thetotal construction value for building permits in October was more than $1.5 billion. That's up over the previous month by36 percent forsingle family homes and 47 percent for new commercial buildings.

The new permits include plans for a major downtown hotel and a few large towers in the city's core.

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Todd Hirsch, a chief economist with ATB Financial, says some of these new projects were planned before oil prices dropped and so this doesn't yet represent an economic turnaround.

"Definitely in that commercial building space, it's going to look very, very weak, with all of the real estate that's come onto the market in Calgary," he said.

Building permits are not a guarantee a project will reach completion, but more an indication that it will move forward, according to the city.

'Absolutely bullish on Alberta'

Toronto-based developer Brad Lamb says his company plans to break ground on the first phase of the two tower condo project next year called The Orchard.

"I'm absolutely bullish on Alberta and Calgary and Edmonton. They're cities that are only going to grow."

Lamb has built another tower in Calgary and he's looking to acquire more property.

But he's also expecting a significant development slowdown until the city shakes off the downturn.

"I do believe we'll be returned to a very strong real estate economy in early to mid- 2018," he said.