Mainstreet responds to allegations it coordinated polls to influence Calgary mayoral race

The polling firm that predicted Bill Smith would be elected mayor of Calgary over incumbent NaheedNenshihas published a lengthy response to criticisms thatits methods were scientifically unsound and allegations it coordinated its polls to influence the campaign.

Mainstreet Research called a 48-31 per cent win for Smith over Nenshi a whopping17 percentage pointgap in early October, then lowered Smith's lead to13 points three days before the election. On Oct.16 Nenshi was elected with an eight-point lead.

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That's a variance of 24percentage points, well over Mainstreet's2.53 percentage point margin of error.

In a statement posted to the company's blog Thursday, president Quito Maggi conceded that his firm's results were "completely and totally wrong."

Maggi wrotethat he watched with "utter shock and embarrassment" as the results came in.

He said the company will be making the following moves in the hope of ensuring their results are more accurate in future:

• Mainstreet'shead of analytics will conduct a review of the Calgary poll and research methods in general.
• All Alberta polls will be moved to live call sampling, rather than the automated interactive voice response (IVR) polls that were used leading up to the Calgary election.
• The company's vice-president will lead an internal technological assessment to review the systems used.

Allegations of 'push polling'

Maggi also addressed allegations that Mainstreetcoordinated with itsmedia partner,Postmedia, to influence the campaign.

"It was suggested that we coordinated polling with the Bill Smith campaign, conducted push polling, and/or worked for the Calgary Flames organization. None of that could be further from the truth," Maggi wrote.

"We sampled using the same methodology we have used to accurately predict hundreds of election outcomes across North America, including dozens of others across Alberta on Monday night and reported those numbers."

Personal attacks

Maggi also noted that personal comments he made during the campaign may have gone "too far," but suggested criticism was unfounded and based on "false information."

As concerns were raisedover Mainstreet's methods in the days leading up to the election, Maggi fired back on Twitter, calling out critics as "tinfoil hat"-wearing conspiracy theorists. He was similarly bullish after the results came out, calling out "sore winners" and arguing that "all the polls were terrible, ours included."

One detractorMaggi singled out in particularwas Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt, who had questioned Mainstreet's methods and pointed out that the firm's results were significantly different from other polling agencies.

MaggichallengedBratt's credibility andMainstreetvice-president David Valentin told 660 News the company planned on respondingindividually to political commentators after the vote.

Maggidid end up responding to Bratt, with an apology, but Brattsent out a lengthy string of tweets Thursday morning letting Maggi know that his apology was not accepted.

Bratt accused Maggiand Valentin of making the conversation personal, public bullying and intimidation.

This isn't the first timeMainstreet has been criticized.

In early 2017, polling industry association Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) sanctioned Mainstreetand Maggi. The association alleged Mainstreethad erred by violating its articles of basic principles, honesty, professional responsiblity and published findings, claims that Mainstreetdisputes.

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