Calgary election: Social media chatter points to Nenshi landslide

If social media activity is a new barometer of an election campaign, then it appearsNaheedNenshiis cruising towards a massive re-election win as mayor of Calgary on Oct.21. If he does get the win, it should notcame as a surpriseNenshidominates online chatter.

His legendary social media savvy is reflected in the relative popularity of his ownTwitter handle,@Nenshi, as well as the presence of active online supporters@Carter_AB (Stephen Carter) and@DollHouseYYC(Marc Doll).That's not to say there's no opposition. A small, but activeanti-Nenshicommunity does exist.

Nenshisonly credible opponentJon Lord,@JonLordCalgary, (who has actually been elected to city council and the Alberta legislature in the past), spent the midpoint of the campaign competing in a barbecue competition in Missouri. Granted, he made it back for Mondays mayoralty forumafter finishing445that the cookingcompetition. Foreshadowing?

Few key issues are emerging, partly because of the predictable composition of theanti-Nenshicamp. Firstthere are the always-vocal tax-fighters the 10 per cent ofCalgarianswho complain about property taxes. Theyll likely show up to vote, but its doubtful they can get others to worry as much as they do about property taxes and development fees.

The second round of opponents the group of developers who dared take on the purple orthodoxy of building up not out also has its broader base of fans at times. But, like the tax-fighters, they cant seem to capture the imagination of the masses in the same wayNenshicontinues to do.

Polls consistently showCalgariansremain highly-satisfied with the direction of the city over the past decade and that sense of satisfaction only increased as a result ofNenshisresponse to Junes flooding they say all boats rise in a flood.

Online sentiment

So what can we learn from analyzing the online conversations ofCalgariansabout the election in the first two weeks of the campaign?

First, during the flood crisis, single-day impressions of Calgary via social media conversations topped 50 million. So far during this municipal campaign, impressions about the elections have typically averaged around one and a half million on most days, peaking at almost 5 million on Mondaynightat the mayoral forum.

Second, social media monitoring shows that this is an election in search of an issue. Taxes, development fees, secondary suites and the mayors support of all incumbents have been discussed, but no one issue has dominated online chats, blogs and mentions.

In fact, there were twice as many people talking aboutNenshiwhen he took on thePartiQuebecois social values charter and Ezra Levant in September than at any point so far in the 2013 election campaign.

• Mayor Nenshi apologizes for tweet to Ezra Levant

If the current online trend continues, I expect turnout rates to drop to about 20 per cent come voting day.

Tomorrow, Ill share our social media analysis of the some of the key ward races and why incumbents are enjoying strength online.