Why Rachel Notley can't rely on Danielle Smith to stumble her way out of premier's chair

Between Danielle Smith's astonishing comments about the unparalleled "discrimination" against the unvaccinated and her apology for espousing Putin-friendly positions on the Ukraine invasion months ago, it appears to be exactly the sort of first week the premier and her party would have dreamed of.

The ex-premier and her party, that is.

Smith's damaging words, both live and recently pre-recorded, are a gift of sorts to Rachel Notley's NDP, who stand to gain simply by not being the ones who said such troublesome things. And early poll numbers seem to bear that out.

These controversies didn't stem from the NDP's opposition research, though it did apply pressure to Smith's self-inflicted wounds by demanding apologies for both utterances.

Battle of the AGMs

A little over 31 weeks to go before Albertans get to decide between these two main parties in May's provincial election, and this weekend offers split-screen programming of what's to come.

The UCP holds its annual convention at Enoch Cree Nation outside Edmonton, while Notley's crew convenes in Calgary, where both sides know the election will likely be won or lost.

At Smith's party gathering, political watchers and conservatives alike will gauge how unified the party is after a bruising year of turmoil that drummed Jason Kenney out of office, and a tighter-than-expected race to replace him, which only brought Smith victory after the maximum six ballots. Not to mention these initial road bumps ushering in the Premier Smith era.

There are the perennially contentious policy resolutions and an activist group trying to stack the party board with its own insurgents.

The NDP's meeting stands to be a much tamer, more sanguine affair. The party is, by all appearances, happily united behind a leader set to contest a third straight election against an untested chief rival. The big development to emerge from that Calgary hotel ballroom? The formal unveiling of the party's new branding a logo with blue sky over mountains and orange prairie, and the phrase "Team Rachel Notley" front and centre.

It was soft-launched on signs in the BrooksMedicine Hat byelection. It's unsurprising to emphasize a leader whom polls have long shown is more popular than her party; but the most socialist in the NDP ranks may be bothered by a not-so-subtle flash of Tory blue from a left-of-centre party seeking broad crossover appeal from disaffected conservatives. (Previous signage also had blue accents.)

It might be tempting for some New Democrats to hope further Smith stumbles and misjudgments help hand them victory after all, it was her notoriously ill-advised crossing from Wildrose to Tories that helped sink both parties' fortunes and vault the NDP into office in 2015. Notley's caucus almost never misses a chance to snipe at the UCP, as one of Canada's few provincial oppositions that never relented throughout the pandemic.

But many insiders will consider how well the attack-first strategy went in 2019, when party strategists' heavy reliance on trashing Jason Kenney and UCP candidates' questionable comments resulted in a crash out of government, down to 24 seats from 54 the previous election.

And the math is tricky for the New Democrats.

In 2015, against both PCs and Wildrose, they could win seats in Calgary, Banff and smaller centres with 35 per cent of the vote or less. That same vote share in 2019 was good for hefty losses in those ridings, meaning that they must greatly outperform their government-winning results next time to have a shot at returning Notley to the premier's office.

Calgary l'orange

NDP strategists recognize that to expand beyond the party's Edmonton base only five of their 24 current seats are outside the capital they must shore up their reputation as faring more poorly on economic issues, given memories of Notley's uneasy performance as premier during Alberta's bruising recession. Smith's party will continue to paint the NDP as economy-wreckers, and tie her to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the federal NDP's Jagmeet Singh.

Will Notley be able to create some distance from those progressive Ottawa leaders and offer a credible vision for a future that demands more economic diversification, but one that also doesn't spook the energy sector executive suites or workforce?

Her party has offered some advocacy on inflation-fighting (like extending the provincial gas tax holiday) and more support for Calgary's downtown, but the time for more policy will likely come closer to campaign season, when the public is more attentive. For now, much of Notley's efforts have centred around merely showing up in Calgary: her office says the Edmontonian spends an average of two days a week in Cowtown, so much so that aides briefly explored plans to rent her a place rather than stay in hotels.

Another key to building credibility that largely eluded the NDP in past elections is candidate selection. The 2015 win brought a lot of unexpected winners and perennial candidates from NDP-friendly unions into office, and most stuck around for another (often unsuccessful) shot in 2019.

Even a leader-centric campaign may be inclined to promote some of her potential deputies in 2023. Veteran energy analyst Samir Kayande is running in the vacant CalgaryElbow; former Calgary Economic Development vice-president Court Ellingson won a contested nomination in CalgaryFoothills; and in Red Deer South, Barb Miller a former Safeway cashier and labour organizer who won the seat in 2015 lost her bid to return to Michelle Baer, Red Deer's former city solicitor.

The NDP had 58 of 87 candidates in place by mid-week, compared to 36 for Smith's party, according to nomination watcher Dave Cournoyer.

As the campaign approaches, more attention will focus on what Notley is offering. As much as the UCP depicts the party as radical socialists, the NDP could position itself as the party of incrementalism and caution.

Smith wants to boldly divorce Alberta from federal pension plan and create a provincial police force, and bring in the political smoke bomb that is the Sovereignty Act; Notley wants no such risky measures. Smith will blow up the Alberta Health Services board, while Notley is preaching modest changes that expand patient access. The NDP leader wants to return to the old days of no Kananaskis park fees, and return to the pre-Kenney process for education curriculum updates.

Terms like "competent" and "stable" show up often in NDP literature.

On the latter score, this Tuesday marked the eighth anniversary of Rachel Notley becoming Alberta NDP leader. What a different world Alberta politics was at that point in 2014: Smith comfortably (it seemed) led the Wildrose opposition, Kenney was a cabinet minister in Stephen Harper's federal government, and Jim Prentice was getting his feet wet as Alberta's 16th premier.

Smith is now premier number 19, and Kenney puts Alberta in the unusual position of having not one, but two ex-premiers in the provincial legislature. The volatility Smith brings may give premier number 17 a better shot at returning, but voters will first have to be convinced that the veteran Notley and her party offer political safe harbour.