Flooding rain across Prairies may not be enough to end prolonged drought conditions. Here's why

CBC Alberta and Saskatchewan have teamed up for a new series on weather and climate change on the Prairies. Meteorologist Christy Climenhaga will bring her expert voice to the conversation to help explain weather phenomena and climate change and how it impacts everyday life.

After last year's record-breaking heat and dry weather, the rain this spring and summer has been welcome to many on the Prairies.

Yet, despite all the rain, drought conditions continue in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

And while it seems like this extra bump of rain is the solution to the drought, is it actually enough? Though it may be hard to believe, the answer is likely no.

Trevor Hadwen, an agroclimate specialist with Agriculture and Agrifood Canada, says many parts of western Saskatchewan and most of southern Alberta is experiencing moderate to severe drought.

Last summer's drought was the worst in about 70 years for the extent and severity of the dryness, according to Agriculture and Agrifood Canada.

Hadwen says the rain this spring just isn't enough to replenish the moisture loss.

"Just because conditions have been improving doesn't mean that all the drought impacts from last year are resolved," he says.

Pastures in the entire Prairie region are below normal levels in terms of production based on the dry fall period. According to Hadwen, there are also issues with hay and feed shortages.

"The moisture that we've received this spring certainly has improved the situation, but there's still a whole lot of issues in the agricultural sector that we're trying to deal with."

The sky opened up in June

This June has been marked by incredible rainfall across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Edmonton has seen almost twice its normal rainfall for June so far.

Calgary saw the Bow River flood with the city declaring a state of local emergency, and in Saskatchewan, intense storms with flooding rains turned parking lots into swimming pools.

That combined with the higher snowpacks this past winter has meant relief for many areas crippled by drought.

"We're seeing some improvement certainly in terms of the severity of drought throughout Alberta," says Hadwen.

Western Saskatchewan has also seen some improvement, but the central region around Rosetown, Kindersley and Leader is still fairly dry,hesays.

Question of quality

So how can we still be talking about drought amid flooding rainfall? Hadwen says that there are a few factors at play. One has to do with how quickly some of this month's rain has fallen.

"If you're looking at water supply recharge, those big rainfall events certainly help," he says

According to Hadwen, that rainfall will fill dugouts and reservoirs, but for things like soil moisture and soil reserves it's a different story.

"Those heavy rainfalls tend to runoff a lot more and get into the water supply and not benefit our groundwater, our reserves and soil moisture," Hadwen says.

The variety in rainfall amounts is also a factor.In Saskatoon alone, a large rainfall on June 20 brought more than 100 millimetres of rain to some parts of the city, but only one millimetre of the rain was recorded at the airport.

Farmers also experience those same geographic variations.

Del Erickson is a retired farmer living about 30 kilometres east of Leader, Sask., in the southwest corner of the province. The area was still well within drought conditions this spring after being sapped of moisture last year.

"Many of the dugouts were dry and there were virtually no sloughs last summer. And those that did have a little water in them, virtually dried up."

Erickson says the crops around his area emerged reasonably well despite that. He says while there was enough moisture to get them started, they did suffer quite a bit before there was significant rain.

"They've improved since the recent rains, but especially earlier crops that had a fair bit of growth, they've been damaged quite a bit. And they can't fully recover."

He says that a drive from Saskatoon to his land in the southwest shows that crops have not recovered as much as he would have thought.

"It's going to be a poor year in many of the areas I've seen."

Meanwhile producers in central Alberta are feeling some relief. That's according to Charlotte Wasylik, who farms cattle, sheep, and chickens, as well as barley, oats, and alfalfa with her family near Vermilion, Alta.

Wasylik says that last year was a strain on their farm, especially feed.

"Last year at this time we were actually gearing up to cut our hay and we usually don't start until mid July. Everything was just drying up to a crisp," she says.

Wasylik says they had less than half the number of hay bales than usual because of the harsh and hot weather, which can be stressful for the winter feed.

"We had about one day's worth of feed left for all of our animals up until the time we moved them out. And that's just a really scary position to be in."

This year's rain in central Alberta has brought relief to Wasylik and her family.

"As soon as everything started to rain, we felt a little bit better. So we are at a really good point. All of the pastures and fields are looking really good." she says.

She adds that the weather has to continue to co-operate in order to fully recover from last year's drought.

"We're always going to just cross our fingers for rain and we're never going to get too confident about the moisture level. So long as we sort of get to the middle of July and there's still good moisture coming from the skies we will be pretty happy."

How much rain is actually enough?

Because of the length and severity of thecurrent drought, recovery will take time for the soil and plant life.

"Plant communities take longer to continue to develop and to replenish and to revert to what they should be at a mature state," says Hadwen.

What increased drought in the Prairies will look like

3 years ago

Duration 0:59

As the climate continues to heat up, the Prairies will see both more and less precipitation. CBC meteorologist Christy Climenhaga explains.

"So even in areas of Manitoba that have flooding, we're still dealing with all those same issues."

Hadwen says the areas that are still in drought conditions are still looking at around 60 to 80 millimetres in terms of their annual deficit for moisture, or how dry the soil is compared to the water it can hold. But as our dry years add up, regaining that deficit doesn't completely fix the problem.

"Even making up that annual deficit doesn't really recharge the entire system, but it certainly will get us back to near normal in terms of pasture production, annual crop development and water supplies."

And because we are just emerging from this drought, it's a slippery slope that we can easily fall back into.

"Certainly in the western Prairies right now where we don't have that good subsurface moisture built up, we're going to be back into a drought situation with two or three weeks of warm, dry conditions."

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