Edmonton's new council has familiar feel despite new faces

"An election is like a horse race in that you can tell more about it the next day."

Sir John A. Macdonald

I've always loved this quote from Canada's first prime minister. I know nothing about horse racing but I do know that you learn more about what happened in an election campaign after you have had a chance to study the election results.

Iveson wins big

The big winner on Oct. 16 was Mayor Don Iveson. Despite the fact voter turnout was down to 31.5 per cent from 34.5 per cent in 2013, Iveson received 141,182 votes 9,020 more than he received in 2013 when he was first elected mayor.

Iveson garnered 72 per cent of the vote, up from 62 per cent in 2013. Any way you slice it, that is a resounding victory.

As I expected, Don Koziak came in a distant second with 13,204 votes and seven per cent of the vote. Steve Shewchuk came in third with 9,716 votes, or five per cent.

This result gives Iveson a strong mandate for his second term as mayor. On election night he said the results reaffirmed his commitment to continue city-building in Edmonton. This is the agenda that he rolled out during the campaign:

• Developing a new economic development plan for the city
• Accelerating the city's energy transition and climate change plans
• Building more affordable infill and expanding LRT
• Strengthening integrity at City Hall
• Creating Canada's most family-friendly city

At a news conference the morning after the election, Iveson indicated that one of his top priorities will be to ensure the city is able to sustain its prosperity.

• Iveson's top priority: sustain Edmonton's prosperity

One surprise in ward races

The councillor races went as expected, except in Ward 3, where newcomer Jon Dziadyk beat incumbent Dave Loken by 464 votes (4,354 to 3,890).

In my column on the races in wards 1-6, I noted that Loken was facing a strong challenge from Dziadyk and John Oplanich. I was surprised by how well Karen Principe did. She received 3,335 votes and placed a strong third. Oplanich ended up finishing fourth.

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In my column before election day I predicted councillors Andrew Knack, Bev Esslinger, Michael Walters, Mike Nickel and Moe Banga would be easily re-elected. They were. I thought four incumbents were facing tough races but that low voter turnout and vote splits would probably work in their favour. That was certainly the case in wards 7 and 8.

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In Ward 6, Scott McKeen took 49 per cent of the vote and fended off two strong challengers to win re-election. As I expected, Kris Andreychuk and Mimi Williams split the progressive vote in Ward 7, allowing Tony Caterina to get re-elected by a margin of 165 votes over Andreychuk, 4,017 votes to 3,852. Williams got 2,164 votes.

In Ward 8, Ben Henderson received 6,235 votes and was re-elected because Kirsten Goa and James Kosowan ended up splitting the "anti-incumbent/time for a change" vote which allowed Henderson to come up the middle and win. Goa received 3,890 votes while Kosowan got 3,430.

The open wards

In my columns on the open wards I had predicted Ward 4 would come down to a contest between Aaron Paquette and Rocco Caterina Tony's son because they had the most name recognition and campaign experience. Paquette prevailed with 3,455 votes to the younger Caterina's 2,517.

In Ward 5 I thought the race was between Sarah Hamilton, Dawn Newton and Miranda Jimmy, with David Xiao as the wild card. Hamilton won with 6,156 votes, Xiao was second with 3,626. Newton and Jimmy came in third and fourth respectively.

In Ward 9, I thought the race was between Tim Cartmell and Rob Agostinis. I expected Cartmell to win because he had the backing of the political establishment. Cartmell won with 9,160 votes and Agostinis came second with 4,763.

North side wants in

Paquette and Dziadyk both ran on platforms promising to put the north side of Edmonton first. Dziadyk campaigned on lower property taxes, less spending in the downtown and the south side and more investment in communities in north Edmonton. His campaign slogan was "Ward 3 First, North Side Second, the rest of Edmonton Third."

In Ward 4, Paquette said he would work to ensure that residents in northeast Edmonton got the same level of services and amenities as citizens in other parts of the city. Like Dziadyk, he said that previous councils had favoured projects in the downtown and the south side.

• North Edmonton 'ignored' and 'forgotten' by city hall, new councillors say

The other newcomers

Hamilton promised residents of her ward she would work with Knack to get the Lewis Farms recreation centre built in the west end.

Cartmell campaigned on fiscal responsibility and getting more infrastructure investment for his ward. Specifically he focused on the 40th Avenue overpass at Terwillegar Drive, something Iveson also promised during the campaign.

What do the results mean?

Iveson and the progressive councillors are the majority on this new council, as they were on the last. Although Iveson has lost Loken, who generally sided with him, he has gained Paquette, a New Democrat and centre-left councillor.

Cartmell and Hamilton come from the Progressive Conservative wing of conservatism in Edmonton, just like the councillors they replaced, Bryan Anderson and Michael Oshry.

Dziadyk campaigned on a conservative platform lower property taxes except when it comes to infrastructure investment in north Edmonton. I expect him to fill Ed Gibbons' shoes ideologically on this council.

The two wings

I expect Knack, Esslinger, Paquette, McKeen, Henderson, Walters and Banga to line up with the mayor on most votes; and I expect Nickel, Caterina, Dziadyk, Cartmell and Hamilton to be on the conservative side. As was the case with the last council, I expect Iveson to have a solid 8-5 majority on most key votes.

As I pointed out during the campaign, Iveson publicly campaigned with Knack, Esslinger, Loken, McKeen, Henderson, Walters and Banga. He did so because they are friends and allies and they generally share the same views on most issues.

I thought at the time that this was a high-risk/high-reward strategy. In some ways it was a shrewd move by Iveson because it solidified his bond with these councillors and he will need their support on his major agenda items.

There is already no love lost between Iveson and councillors Nickel and Caterina, but he will probably have to do some fence-mending with Dziadyk. This was the risk Iveson was willing to take.

Final thoughts

The mayor and the majority of councillors who were elected ran on platforms that included further LRT expansion, more affordable infill development and better bike-lane infrastructure. This new council will carry on with these initiatives that were started by the previous council.

Council is also going to be grappling with some other key issues:

• What to do with Northlands Coliseum once it closes at the end of the year
• Once funding is secured for the west leg of the Valley LRT line, they will have to decide where the next extension should go (extend the Metro line northwest to St. Albert or extend the Capital line south to Heritage Valley?) This will be a major battle that will pit north-side councillors against south-side councillors
• As growth continues and the city continues to build recreation centres, libraries, police stations and fire halls,there will be an ongoing need for more personnel, which in turn will continue to drive ongoing property tax increases

The issue of never-ending annual property tax increases was an issue in this campaign. Look for it to be the dominant issue in the 2021 municipal election campaign in Edmonton.