How experts use modelling and satellites to predict and tackle wildfires

As ravaging wildfires continue to burn across Alberta, forestry and wildfire experts are using modelling and satellitesto help firefighting efforts.

Wildfire modelling allows experts to create a three-dimensional model of existing or historic fires and determine where they'll continue to burn, how aggressive they are, and how certain weather patterns will affect them. The techniquehelps firefighterson the front linesbetter predict where fires and smoke could move.

"We have fire behaviour experts who are constantly working with a variety of tools at their disposal, including modelling, and what the fuel conditions are in various parts of the province," Alberta Wildfire information unit manager Christie Tucker said duringTuesday's wildfire update.

"These all have had a large influence on how a fire behaves."

Tucker saidwildfire modelling isn't foolproof, but it can give firefighters an idea of how to best tackle out-of-control fires.

"There are always things that cannot be predicted exactly how they're going to play out when things move very quickly, when you have gusting winds that can be less predictable."

A 2022 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that places that experience fire only every 400 years will experience them as often as once every 50 years.

And the Prairies have not been spared by active fire seasons.

Officials say this year's wildfire season is now Alberta's second-worston record. The previous record was set in 1981, when 1.3 million hectares burned.

Satellites, mathematical models helpanalyze wildfires

Gabriel Wainer is acomputer engineering professor at Carleton University, where hefocuses on creating mathematical equations toconduct simulations ofwildfire activity.

He saidthis technology has seenmajor advances over the last decade, and that helps firefighters better understand and deal with fires.

"For instance,[if] there is more wind and now the fuel is not grass anymoreit's pine or it's sequoia [trees] you don't need to burn anything. You just need to modify the mathematical model to learn what's going to happen," Wainer said.

Eyes in the sky are also becoming an increasingly important tool for boots on the ground when it comes to fighting wildfires, experts say. Data from a growing number of satellites can givefirefighters ways to predict fire behaviour and analyze its consequences.

The last decade has seen a huge jump in the number of Earth-observation satellites, driven by cheaper technology and the entry of private industry.

A count from the Union of Concerned Scientists,a science advocacy organization, says there were 192 such satellites in 2014. Now there are 971.

Satellites can give information on things likefire radiative power, a measure of how much energy a fire is emitting. That can tell fire managers where the hot spots are, as well as where the fire is most likely to advance and how quickly.

"Models, simulations, artificial intelligence, geographical informationsystems, visualization, real-time data, satellite information, plus the experts in the field we have lots of tools right now to try and help with this," Wainer said.