NDP, Liberals both hope for breakthrough in Edmonton riding

Political watchers in Alberta are keeping a close eye on the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, one of two ridings that the Liberals and the NDP are bothhoping to takefrom the Conservatives in this election.

The seat, which isjust south of downtown, and includes the trendy and affluent Old Strathcona, Belgravia and Garneau neighborhoods, as well as the University of Alberta, has been held by Conservative Rahim Jaffer since 1997.

Alberta's 28 seats all went to the Conservative party in the 2006 election, a long-term trend that's not expected to change much on Oct. 14for most ridings in this province, where people tend to lean to the political right.

However, all eyes are on Edmonton-Strathcona, a riding that some say was an example of vote-splitting on the left in the 2006 election.

Jaffer won the riding with 22,000 votes. But 26,000 people voted for either the NDP or theLiberals.

In the last election, NDP candidate Linda Duncan got 17,153 votes, compared with 9,351 for the Liberals.She thinks these figures bode well for how she will do in this election, and she's trying to convince Liberal voters to cast a ballot for her in a riding where Liberal support has dropped over the past three elections.

"In the last election, I came closest to ousting him," she said of Rahim Jaffer while out doorknocking last week. "I'm not just the sort of usual second place, about 20.000 votes behind. I was only, you know, less than 5,000 so we're pretty optimistic."

Claudette Roy, who is running for the Liberals, is also trying to court strategic voters, by trying to convince NDP supporters to vote for her.

"There are thoughtful people out there who are gonna look at it at the end of the day, and say, 'who's got the best chance of replacing the Harper government?"" Roy said.

Incumbent Rahim Jaffer knows his riding contains pockets of support for the other parties, but he doesn't believe mostpeople will vote strategically.

"I think many of them have sometimes ethical issues with that. I think, if anything, they sometimes choose a certain candidate that they like or they choose a certain party, or a leader," Jaffer said.

But this is a riding to watch, according to Steve Patten, a political science professor at the University of Alberta. He says the numbers in the past few elections tell him the political landscape could shift in Edmonton-Strathcona.

"Local campaigns usually only make a difference at the margin. But that's going to be important this time around when you're talking about a 5,000-vote margin of victory for Rahim Jaffer last time," Patten said.

"So if the Liberals have a relatively weak campaign in Edmonton-Strathcona and the New Democrats and Linda Duncan have a strong campaign, then that's going to close that 5,000-vote margin."

Jaffer, Duncan and Roy aren't the only candidates in Edmonton-Strathcona. Jane Thrall is the Green Party candidate.Kevan Hunter is running for the Marxist-Leninist party.