Hamilton's mayoral frontrunners close out months-long campaign

• All of CBC Hamilton'selection coverage can be found here.

This weekend bringsthe municipal election campaign to a close in Hamilton, with candidates for mayor, councillor and school boardtrusteegetting in their final word on why voters in the city should throwsupport behind them on Monday.

It came after a week of intensified campaigning, with several new policyannouncements, endorsements and a whirlwind ofcommunity stops.

This year's election has been dubbed by some as a "change election," with the city poised to have a new mayor and at least six new councillors but when it comes to the mayoral race, one Hamilton-based political scientistsays the change will likely come as a result ofdifferences inleadership style, rather than dramatically differentpolicy stances.

"In terms of mayoral candidates, I don't think there's really huge departures in terms of what they're promising There's not a lot where I walk through those platforms and think, 'Wow, here's something really exciting,'" Peter Graefe, a McMaster University associate professor of political science, told CBC Hamilton in the lead-up to election day.

Graefe said there may be the perception a new mayor will bring change because of the numerous recent scandals the city has seen including the sewage spill at Chedoke Creek, the ongoing Red Hill Valley Parkway inquiry and tensionson council coupled with newcandidates promising transparency and a culture shift atcity hall.

But just how much change any one mayoral candidate willbring is less clear.

While Hamilton has nine mayoral candidates, three have been considered the frontrunners throughout the campaign: Bob Bratina,Andrea Horwathand Keanin Loomis.

Bratina is a former mayor, Liberal member of parliament and Ward 2 councillor.

Horwathwas formerly theleader of the Ontario New Democratic Party, a Ward 2 city councillor, and member of provincial parliament for Hamilton East and Hamilton Centre. She's also the only woman in the race.

Loomis is the former chief operating officer of the Innovation Factory business accelerator and former president and chief executive officer of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce.

Graefe said in his opinion,Horwath likely doesn't offer any big policy changes from outgoing mayor Fred Eisenberger, noting their shared desire to build planned light-rail transit and maintain the urban boundary.

In an interview with CBC Hamilton on Oct. 4, Horwath said that, if elected, she would also continue to support the city's current direction on climate change and zoning.

"I think the city has already got a pretty good plan when it comes to how do we achieve gentle density in neighbourhoods where that's appropriate," she said.

Hamilton mayoral candidate: Interview with Andrea Horwath

2 years ago

Duration 24:20

Hamilton mayoral candidate Andrea Horwath takes questions from CBC Hamilton's Saira Peesker before the Oct. 24 municipal election.

She added however that she thought the city could do more to fight climate change, does not have enough bike lanes and that the city and police are not taking hate crimes seriously enough.

Under Horwath's leadership, the Ontario NDP gained official party status and was the official opposition twice.The partylost nine seats in the last election, however.

Graefe said Loomis probably isn't too different from Eisenberger in terms of policy, but there's one thing that jumps out to him."At the level of governance ... he's trying to make a difference to say the city needs to be made much more open to citizens," Graefe said.

Loomis's platform includes proposals for housing and transit, but Graefe saysthere havebeen questions about his stance on the urban boundary.The Chamber of Commerce supported expanding it, but Loomis has since said he wants to hold the boundary firm.

"I was representing a constituency that is very business-friendly [and] pro-development," Loomis told CBC Hamilton in an interview last month. "People are now paying attention to how we are growing and expanding as a community. I think that's a really good thing. Sprawl as usual is no longer going to be permitted."

Hamilton mayoral candidate Keanin Loomis

2 years ago

Duration 24:42

Hamilton mayoral candidate Keanin Loomis takes questions from CBC Hamilton's Saira Peesker before the Oct. 24 municipal election.

It wouldtake a concerted effort and significant added density to accomplish the provincial targetof creating 100,000 new dwellings between now and 2050 within the existing boundary, he added."It's important for people to understand we need to be a city of YIMBYs if we are going to work to save our agricultural land," he said, referring to the idea of"Yes-In-My-Backyard."

Loomis faced somecriticism this campaign for leading the chamber during a time when it opposedthe province's proposal, then by Kathleen Wynne's government,to hike minimum wage from $11.40 per hour in 2017 to $15 per hour by 2019. He released a recent statement on his website about it, saying he was representing local businesses at the time and reminded people the mayor can't set a minimum wage.

In the interview withCBCHamilton, he said he was supportive of the broader push for businesses to pay a living wage, a measure he implemented at thechamber. A living wage in Hamilton is currently $17.20 per hour, according to the Ontario Living Wage Network.

Clifton van der Linden, another assistant professor of political science at McMaster and founder of Vox Pop Labs (the creator ofVoteCompass), said VoteCompass data out of Hamiltonshows respondentswho showed support for Loomisseem to be in the politicalcentre, but it's not as simple as it seems.

"Loomis has an interestingrange of positions on issues that, in aggregate, position him as a centrist but in some cases he takes positions thatare quite left-leaning and in other cases positions that are more centrist.

"That may be a conscious attempt to target different sets of voters ... that can bring together a coalition ... it can also create friction between different groups of voters ... who might not see him as being as ideologically consistent."

In the interview with CBC Hamilton, like Horwath,Loomis said he supported council's move to lookinto the decriminalization of drugs and that city needed to do more on climate change.Bratina on the other hand, was undecided about the next steps for decriminalization and said the city's efforts on climate change so far were enough.

Van der Linden said respondents who support Horwath tended to be toward the left while respondents who supported Bratina were right of centre.

Graefe said it's easy to see what change Bratina might bring, as he has actually been mayor before."In terms of policy, on the LRT, [Bratina and Eisenberger] had very different views but on things like urban boundary expansion they were, in some ways, on the same page. Budgetarily, it didn't seem like there was a huge difference," he said.

"Personality-wise, neither[Bratina nor Eisenberger] was effective at being a leader of council," Graefe said,"In Bratina's case, he kind of actively antagonized council, whereas Eisenberger, he largely was willing to lose on his main issues and otherwise get along with councillors."

Bratina's time as mayor included arguments with councillors, acensure vote and an integrity commissioner investigation.

GraefenotedBratina hastalked about changing the culture at city hall, which would indicate more of a style change than anything, but the question is whether that would be seen as apositive change or whether it would lead to the kinds of conflicts that appearedin his last run.

Bratina sees things differently, telling CBC Hamilton that he was often in line with his council colleagues and that his term was exceptionally productive.

Hamilton mayoral candidate: Interview with Bob Bratina

2 years ago

Duration 27:48

Hamilton mayoral candidate Bob Bratina takes questions from CBC Hamilton's Saira Peesker before the Oct. 24 municipal election.

"Most people think I'm a pretty nice guy," he said. "Some people don't. I don't suffer fools gladly.

"Nobody is going to call me a clown to my face and I'm just going to turn and walk away."

That comment was seemingly in response to a recent tweet from Ward 1 Coun. Maureen Wilson that was critical of a text message the Bratina campaign sent voters.

Graefe says there wasa"huge pivot" in Bratina's approachtoward the end of the campaign. Bratina was calling himself the transit mayor earlier in the election. More recently, he labelled his competitorsas "far left."

"It has pivoted completely to being against the far left and a lot about funding police and increasing police patrols," Graefe said.

"It's always a bit fun as a political scientist to see a former Liberal member of cabinet criticizing the chamber of commerce president for being on the far left kind of a bizzaro world."

Bratina opposed the light-rail transit (LRT) system during his previous term in council, and said he wouldn't run to be a Liberal member of parliament again after the federal government committed money to the project.

In this campaign, he has said he would support it being built and having the city manage its operations, but seemed less committed to that stance in therecent CBC interview, where he appeared to open the door to once again debating the project.

"I'd love for anybody in the room to tell me what the impact on the residential taxpayer is going to be when we move forward with the LRT," he said. "There are 16 votes on council. I have one."

"When all the information comes forward.. We'll make that decision. It will live or die on its own merits."

In theCBC Hamilton interview onOct. 11, Bratina also said hedid not support freezing the urban boundary. He also felt strongly that funding should not be shifted from the police budget toward social services. More police need to be hired, he added, to address crime in the city.

By Monday evening, one of them is expected to be namedHamilton's next mayor. Polls are open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m.