Influx of people from Toronto impacts Hamilton both positively and negatively, report finds

An influx of people from Toronto over the last several years has impacted Hamilton and neighbouring areas both positively and negatively, according to a new report.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) analysts looked at migration and housing trends in Canada's most populated census metropolitan areas (CMAs) from 2002 to 2019.

"It became evident over that period that migration can contribute and, in special circumstances, respond to significant changes in housing market conditions," CMCH said in its report released on Thursday.

In addition to the Hamilton CMA, rapid price growth in Torontocontributed to greater outflows of Torontonians to Oshawa and Barrie.

Between 2015 and 2018, the annual number of people moving into these regions from Toronto represented a significant 1 to 2 per cent of their overall populations.

"House price spillover and an influx of migrants from Toronto, who generally had the income and down payment to afford higher-priced homes in these regions, put significant upward pressure on their house prices," the report says.

"Housing supply in all three CMAs was relatively unresponsive to the changing market conditions, with population-adjusted housing starts remaining near their respective long-term averages.

"As a result, Oshawa, Hamilton and Barrie's housing markets became too expensive for a growing number of their existing residents, prompting more of them to move to nearby communities with less expensive housing."

Despite the influx of Torontonians, the report says the overall within-province migration failed to increase in either Hamilton, Oshawa or Barrie during this period.

Meanwhile, CMAs located further away from Toronto, such as Kitchener, Cambridge-Waterloo, St. Catharines-Niagara, London and Windsor, experienced much greater inflows of Torontonians as well.

Regions such as Collingwood, Wasaga Beach and Kawartha Lakes not only gained residents from Toronto, but also from Oshawa, Hamilton or Barrie.

According to CMHC, the distance of these regions from Toronto suggests that growing inflows were mostly people 45 to 64 years old, a large percentage of whom moved there to retire.