Climate change will turn up the heat in Waterloo Region

Climate change would triple the number of days over 30 degrees in the summer, bring more frequent and intense rainfall and create milder winters with more frequent freezing rain in Waterloo Region, according to a new report commissioned by the regional government and its three largest cities.

The problem of climate change is already being blamed by some for intensifying weather patterns in Waterloo Region that have brought flash floods, freezing rain and drought in the last few years.

We can no longer use history as a benchmark for what's likely to happen tomorrow.- JasonThistlethwaite, co-author of

"What we wanted to take a look at is how climate change modelsproject the differences in weather that we'relikely to see in the2020s,2050sand2080s," JasonThistlethwaite,aUniversity of Waterloo researcherwho studies the economic risks of extreme weather and one of the report'sco-authors toldTheMorning Editionhost Craig Norris Monday.

The report, Localized Climate Projections for Waterloo Region, is an attempt to paint a picture of what Waterloo Region would look like in a warmer world by usingdata from 20 different climate change studies in order to predict how intensifying global weather patterns would affect local communities so that municipalities can adapt.

"There's a big business case for them to be aware of these things," he said."I think municipalities are strongly motivated to take some of the steps so we can adapt to some of these big impacts that we're likely to see in this region."

Hotter summers, more intense rainfall

Among the biggest changes that would potentially affect Waterloo Region is the warming planet itself, according to Thistlethwaite, who says summer heat wouldintensifyover the next 35 to 65 years.

"Right now we see about 10 days where you get 30 degree weather during the summer," hesaid. "We expect that to triple by about the 2050s."

Waterloo Region would also become wetter, according to the report, with "large magnitude rainfall events expected to occur more frequently than in the expected historical record."

Thistlethwaite said a warming climate would also mean milder winters with more likelihood of freezing rain.

"So you are going to see warmer winters, that is the trend," he said."We've actually identified as a about a 40 per cent increase in freezing rain is likely by about the 2050s."

Thistlethwaitenoted that with the increased frequency of freezing rain, cities will need to find better strategies to deal with the damage caused byice storms, noting widespread damage to homes, power linesand urban canopies, not only make them costly, but dangerous to deal with.

A change in thinking

"We can no longer use history as a benchmark for what's likely to happen tomorrow," Thistlethwaite said."We encourage [city planners and politicians]to take this information and then start adaptation planning."

Thistlethwaite hopes the report can be used as a guide, in order to shore up city infrastructure, which is not only a community's first line of defence against climate change, but also, in the case of roads and storm drains, has the greatest susceptibility to extreme weather.

"So it's about looking at your responsibilities as a municipalities to see where we need to adapt," he said. "If we are going to see more extreme heat over the summer, we need to identify where the vulnerable people are and provide cooling centres to manage that type of impact."

Thistlethwaite said it is up to Waterloo Region and its biggest cities to identify theirbiggest priorities in order to reduce the potential threat of climate change on the community.