Riding races in Waterloo region could have provincial repercussions

Waterloo region has at least three races to watch closely because they may produce results with a big impact onthe provincial election, one poll analyst says.

In 2018, there were tight vote margins in Kitchener-Conestoga, Kitchener South-Hespeler and Cambridge which could make things interesting this time around saysric Grenier, a writer at the website The Writ. He's overseeing CBC's Poll Tracker for the Ontario election.

The parties are going to be putting a lot of resources intothese particular races, Grenier believes.

"Just in general, the Kitchener-Waterloo area is a really interesting one because if you're the PCs and you want to form a government, you need to win rural ridings, and suburban and mid-sized cities," he said.

"If you're the NDP or Liberals, you need to win urban ridings and mid-sized cities, so whoever wins seats in the Kitchener-Waterloo area is really setting themselves up well to form a government."

Three notable ridings

In Cambridge, incumbent Belinda Karahalioshelped to forma new party after she was ousted from the Progressive Conservative caucus. Grenier says the riding is "a bit of a wild card" because incumbents are often seen as having an advantage, but not when they switch to a different party or become an independent. Karahalios is now a member of the New Blue party.

"If you're crossing the floor to sit with another of the established parties, traditional parties, that's not so tough," he said. "If you're crossing the floor to sit with a new party [or]you're going to sit as an independent, that's when it's really tough to win your seat because a lot of people don't vote for the local MPP, they vote for the party."

He gave the example of federal candidate Maxime Bernier, who left the Conservatives to form the People's Party and since then,has twice failed to win his seat (in 2019 and again in 2021).

There's no incumbent in Kitchener South-Hespeler as Amy Fee is not seeking a second term, which opens up the seat, Grenier said.

The riding was created just in advance of the 2018 election, and Fee became its first-ever MPP, winning by a margin of fewer than 1,000 votes. She announced last summer that she would not berunning, for family reasons.

In Kitchener-Conestoga,Mike Harris Jr. is the incumbent. He is the son of former PC premier Mike Harris.

He replaced Michael Harris, of no relation, who served as the MPP for the area between 2011 and 2018. Michael Harris did not run in the 2018 election after being removed from the Progressive Conservative party andis currently a regional councillor.

Mike Harris Jr.won the seat in 2018 by fewer than 1,000 votes.

There are five ridings in Waterloo region. Click on the riding name below to learn more about the issues in that area and see who is running:

• Cambridge.
• Kitchener Centre.
• Kitchener-Conestoga.
• Kitchener South-Hespeler.
• Waterloo.

Voting day is June 2.