What African swine fever means for Canada's pork industry

Canadian pork producers say they're watching closely asAfrican swine fever (ASF) spreads throughChina,wiping out large numbers of the country's pig population and bumping up demand for North American pork.

ASF is a highly infectious viral diseasethat causes fever, haemorrhaging and death in pigs.

In China, an outbreak was detected inAugust 2018 and has since caused massive numbers of pig deaths, some due to the disease and some due to preventiveculling, according to Bob Friendship, who studies population medicine as a professor at the Ontario Veterinary College.

About half of global pork consumption happens in China, which means any disruption in the country's pig populationhas the power to create significant demand for alternate sources of pork, Friendship said.

"Right now, it appears that China has a dramatic shortage of pork, and it's a huge market, so it's going to create a worldwide shortage of pork," Friendship said.

"It would seem that China is beginning to import large amounts of pork, and over the last month, the North American pig prices have dramatically increased."

Bump in Canadian pork prices

As China ups its import levels, the markets haveseemingly changed overnight,according to Eric Schwindt, chair of Ontario Pork, an organization that represents pork producers.

In the last year, the price of pork has swung from a low of$1.20a kilogram up to around $1.90 a kilogram now a difference that works out to almost $80 a hog, Schwindt said.

"[That's] the difference between losing $50 and making $30," said Schwindt, whoruns a farm of about 12,000 pigs near Elmira, Ont.

Schwindtsaidthe price bump comes at a welcome time for Ontario producers, who have beenconsistently losing money on pork over the past year.

"There's been a lot of meat in general in North America, and with the tariffs imposed on U.S. pork, that negatively affects Canadian prices," said Schwindt.

"This winter, I was getting phone calls from people wondering how they were going to stay in the businesslonger term if it wasn't sustainable, what choices they were going to make."

Of course, some costs will be passed onto the consumer and reflected in the grocery store, with higher prices expected for meat in general and pork in particular, Friendship said.

Canadians should be 'fairly worried': prof

Schwindt said Ontario farmers are looking forward to stronger pork prices lasting around two to three years, and using the time to shore up their balance sheets.

Still, he saidthatis tempered by dread at what could happen if African swine fever were to make its way to Canada.

"It could be devastating for us as producers," he said.

The likelihood of that happening is low, Friendship said, but Canadians should still be "fairly worried" because of how damaging it could be for the pork industry.

"If it was to get here, it's disastrous,"said Friendship."It would close all the borders, it would destroy our swine industry."

Friendship said Canada has a strong track record of preventing other foreign diseases from entering the country, such as foot and mouth disease.

The federal government has also announced some new initiatives to prevent ASFfrom entering the country, including a commitment of up to $31 million to install more sniffer dogs at Canadian airports to detect illegal meat products.

Ottawa will also host an international forum next week for members of the industry to discuss ways of preventing the spread of infection.

"I think the chance of getting it is quite low, but the consequences are just terrible so that keeps people up at night I think," he said.

Canada isthe world's third-largest exporter of pork, according to Agriculture and Agri-FoodCanada.

Provincially, Ontario Pork says the industry generates14,274full-time equivalent jobs.