Transit cuts, more money for road renewals expected as city delivers 2018 budget

For months, Mayor Brian Bowman has promised Winnipeggers a painful budget. Wednesday is the day the nature of that pain will become clear.

"This budget was without question the most difficult budget we've had to draft," Bowman said earlier this week, complaining about flat provincial funding that will place a particular strain on Winnipeg Transit.

The size and scope of that strain is one question that will be answered when the mayor tables the city's spending plan for 2018.

The details were expected to be made public shortly after 1:30 p.m., duringa special meeting of council's executive policy committee. However, a fire alarm at city hall has delayed the release until after 2 p.m.

In the meantime, here are five things Winnipeggers can expect from the city budget:

1. Transit cuts

One week before budget day, Bowman warned Winnipeg Transit users to expect pain in the form of service cuts and fare hikes. The province's decision to freeze transit funding at 2016 levels will leave Winnipeg Transit with a $10-million hole, the mayor warned.

That hole, he said on Nov. 16, could be filled by cutting up to 59 transit routes, laying off up to 120 transit drivers and raising transit fares by as much as 30 cents.

• Winnipeg mayor warns of fare hikes, cuts to 59 transit routes and 120 layoffs
• Analysis: Tough transit talk from Winnipeg mayor sounds like pre-budget political posturing

On Tuesday, Bowman continued to warn of cuts but suggested they won't be as drastic as he suggested they could be last week.

"One of the big-ticket items that we've been spending a lot of time with was mitigating the full impact of those transit cuts," the mayor said outside the Manitoba Legislature Tuesday. "What you will see when we table [the budget] is how we tried to mitigate the full impact."

CBC News has learned the budget does in fact call for the frequency of service to be cut on some transit routes, as well asfare hikes in excess of the usual inflationary nickel.

Bowman declined to say onTuesday when route reductions would take effect.

A delay in implementing cuts could prove advantageous for the mayor, as the provincial budget will not be tabled until the spring. Holding off on the cuts now would allow the mayor to pressure the province for months to reinstate thetransit-funding deal the Progressive Conservatives cancelled this year.

2. Transit safety improvements

Despite the pending cuts to Winnipeg Transit, public works chair Marty Morantz (Charleswood-Tuxedo-Whyte Ridge) said the city will follow through on its promise to spend more on transit safety.

In the wake of the February killing of transit driver Irvine Jubal Fraser, the city unveiled a transit-safety planthat would roll out over two years.

This year,Winnipeg Transit issued a tender to test out safety barriers, encouraged riders to report safety problems, vowed toimprove the way violent incidents on buses are reportedto police and created a transit advisory committee to review how the service operates.

• Barriers around bus drivers, private transit cops could be legacy of Jubal Fraser killing

A plan endorsed by council in May calls for the city tospend up to $710,000 to hire five full-time security staff, create new positions called "point duty officers," expand itstransit surveillancesystem, andhire one more instructor to train drivers to defuse conflict along with three drivers to allow the training to happen.

The city will proceed with these measures and the budget will reflect that, Morantz said.

"That's a huge issue. We always need to be looking out for the safety of our operators and our passengers," he said Tuesday at city hall. "I think you'll see movement on that."

3. Property taxes andcity spending

When he ran for mayor, Bowman promised to limit the increase in the overall pool of taxes the city collects from existing properties to 2.33 per cent a year. He kept that promise in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

Bowman has committed to meeting this targetagain in 2018. While this amounts to keeping a promise, it also limits the potential pool of new revenue for the city next year.

In 2017, the city collected about $569 million worth of property tax revenue. A 2.33 per cent property tax hike will generate $13.3 million worth of additional revenue for the city in 2018.

From 2016 to 2017, overallspending rose in Winnipeg by $24.4 million, a rise of 2.3 per cent. The 2018 spending increase is expected to be more modest, thanks to the negotiated settlement of collective bargaining agreements with unions representing Winnipeg's police officers, firefighters and general employees.

• Firefighters union strikes new tentative deal with City of Winnipeg
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Those labour deals include modest wage hikes that will help the city limit spending growth in 2018. Those lower wage increases, however, areoffset to some extent by flat provincial funding for transit, the police helicopter and police cadets, among other city services.

4. Road renewal cash

In theory, two percentage points of Winnipeg's annual property-tax hike are supposed to be dedicated to road renewals. That was not the case in 2017, when the city's road renewal budget stoodat$105 million, which represented no increase over 2016.

• Council approves 2017 budget after bickering about road renewals

TransconaCoun. Russ Wyatt repeatedly needled the mayor over this inconsistency during last year's budget debate. The mayor hinted a real increase is coming to road renewals in 2018.

"The No. 1 priority of Winnipeggers is fixing the roads and you can expect to see that reflected in [Wednesday's] budget," Bowman said this week.

An increase of anything less than $11.4 million, however, would openthe mayor up to more criticism, as that's what a two percentage point property tax hike would generate for Winnipeg.

5. New challenges and opportunities

In the 2017 budget, Winnipeg expected to rake in $1 million from its new growth fees, charged on new residential developments in several neighbourhoods. The actualtally from fees charged on new developments has already exceeded the projection.

Next year will be the first year Winnipeg can bank on a full year's worth of growth fees. While council would love to spend this revenue on new infrastructure, it's languishing in a bank account for now, thanks to the ongoing legal challenge from developers who maintain the city does not have the right to charge these fees.

CBC News has also learned the city intends to increase its annual funding to combat Dutch elm diseasein 2018.

On the downside, nextyear will also be the first year Winnipeg will have to cover the cost of regulating taxis and other vehicles for hire. While Bowman has pledged to ensure vehicle-for-hire regulation won't impact the city budget, it's unclear how the city will raise the money.