Can the NDP recover from its infighting?

The NDP was already facing a steep, uphill struggle to win a fifth consecutive term in office at the April 2016 election.

The four-month long public battle over party leadership tarnished the party image, harmed the credibility of Mr. Selinger (who kept his job as premier by the narrowest of margins), created a climate of mistrust within the caucus, led to the departure of key backroom political strategists and drained the commitment of many rank and file members of the party.

[Selinger]should show ... strength ... by bringing the dissidents fully back within caucus.- Paul Thomas

Most of the analysis of this upheaval has focused on the highly unpopular decision to increase the PST and eliminate the requirement to hold a referendum before the increase.

The PST increase might have been the right public policy decision. However, most of politics is less about finding solutions to public problems and far more about building a consensus for decisions and then attracting support for them.

Political scientists employ the concept of political capital to explain why leaders and parties find themselves in deep trouble like todays NDP. Political capital consists of mostly intangible assets like attraction, persuasion, influence, consent, trust and commitment which skillful leaders use to induce compliance and support both within their parties and with the electorate at large.

Like other types of assets within society, political capital is always in short supply and can be quickly depleted. Hubris and complacency often leads to the loss of political capital.

Rebuilding political capital

Is it possible for Mr. Selinger and the NDP to rebuild their internal and external political capital sufficiently to avoid a severe political setback in April 2016? Winning seems improbable without a major blunder by Mr. Pallister and the Conservatives, but steps could be taken to rebuild the political capital of the party.

It begins with how the premier deals with the dissidents, both the former ministers and the senior political staff. Mr. Selinger says he is exploring paths towards reconciliation. On the basis of political calculation and the espoused values of party unity, he should show emotional maturity, magnanimity and strength as a leader by bringing the dissidents fully back within caucus.

This would test the claim of the dissidents that they want to work toward the political recovery of the party. A decision for them not to stand for re-election would mean a search for replacements who may be less well known and lack experience. The constituencies occupied by the former ministers are all important, but a couple in southeast Winnipeg represent hard won strategic locations for 2016.

Regardless of the party in power, the pool of experienced and skillful talent among MLAs to serve in high profile ministerial roles is limited. With a session of the legislature likely to be called for late April, and a tough budget to be introduced as the likely first item of business, the government will be under attack by Mr. Pallister and the Progressive Conservatives who will have lots of ammunition to fire at the NDP.

Welcoming dissidents back a smart move

In the rough and tumble of the legislature, freshman ministers have a greater tendency to get in trouble. The government will need all their MLAs committed to explaining and defending the future plans and the record of the government.

By extending conditional trust to the dissidents, the premier could enlist their active support. Eventually one or more of them might be appointed as legislative assistants supporting ministers as one step towards rejoining cabinet, as unlikely as those scenarios might seem in the midst of the bitterness and recrimination left over from a nasty leadership fight.

Human values of decency, honesty, trust and forgiveness can be powerful resources for a leader in trouble.- Paul Thomas

Within all governments, regardless of their partisan stripe, political staff serving the premier and other ministers play a valuable, influential role in the development and advancement of the agenda of the governing party. In the NDP government, all such staff are hired centrally, report to the chief of staff in the premiers office, and have no job security.

When the leadership crisis broke into the open, several key senior staff in the premiers office were pushed to the sidelines or left voluntarily to work for other leadership candidates, mainly Theresa Oswald. As happened back in 2009 during the last NDP leadership contest, assurances were given by the premiers office that there would be no retaliation for staff working on other leadership campaigns.

There are now reports that former senior staff are being dismissed or induced to leave. Keeping promises and extending trust to such individuals is not only the ethical thing to do, it is also politically smart, because the premier and the party will need the knowledge and skills that such strategists possess in order for the party to repair the political damage to the party.

In the present cynical era, the motives and actions of politicians are presumed to be self-interested and calculating. However the human values of decency, honesty, trust and forgiveness can be powerful resources for a leader in trouble. Premier Selinger would do well to show some humility and magnanimity as the basis for building for the future.

Paul Thomas is professor emeritus in political studies at the University of Manitoba.