Cautious optimism ahead of Manitoba's next flood forecast

Unseasonably warm weather over the last few weeks has many throughout the province hopefulthat the upcoming flood forecast will leave them a little more optimistic than January's did.

The hydrologic forecast centre is set torelease its updated February flood forecast Monday and after January's forecast indicated thatSouthwestern Manitoba, including the Red, Pembina, Souris, Roseau and lower Assiniboine rivers were at risk of major flooding many have their fingers crossed fordrier conditions.

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Debbie McMechan,reeve of the municipality of Two Borders in the southwest corner of the province,said the first forecast was pretty scary, andeven though the warm weather has been shrinking the snow banks, she still hasconcerns.

"Things are looking a little more promisingbut snow cover is traditionally not where our floods come from," McMechanexplained.

"Where our floods come from now, [they]seem to be caused by overland flooding, caused by high surface water and rain events. The water table being combined with rain events and quite frankly changes to water management."

McMechan said she is hearing that the ground was saturated heading into winter and the water table is still high.

"That's where we are. Any rain has the potential, under the right circumstances, to put us into a flood situation, maybe not a serious one, but the thought [of the] possibility of that eight [inches of]rain we've lived through it it's a possibility, so that's the sort of thing that is worrisome," said McMechan.

• Manitoba to open Red River Floodway amid flood worries

Morris has lived through many floods

Gavin van der Linde, the mayor of Morris, said it is still early and the recent weather has allowed for a reasonable amount of snow melting. He said that the people of Morris aren't too worried yet as they have lived through many floods before.

"People are used to it, and ready for it and we're a reasonably well-protected community. I guess our biggest concern would be waiting for the province's official flood forecast coming out [today] and then we will have a better idea of what to expect and what to prepare for," said van der Linde.

Van der Linde said he is aware of the reports from the U.S. National Weather Service which say there there could be major flooding near the Canada U.S. border this spring. He said the timing will be a critical issue.

"We're expecting some reasonably high water, but with the water, with the soil saturation in full as we get into spring, I hope there is still a lot of time. Fortunately we have months to prepare in Manitoba with the Red River," said van der Linde.

One of the biggest worries for Morris, he said, is if the water rises enough to force the closure of Highway 75.

"Once the highway gets closed, the main Highway 75, that's when there is more of an impact on community. Whether it's just simple commuting or whether it's an economic impact, we always hope for the best-case scenario," said van der Linde.

Flood-proofing Highway 75

The province announced in 2014 that it would spend $200 million to flood-proof Highway 75, the main commercial route from Manitoba to the United States. Van der Linde said they can see a lot of the work has already been started on the highway south of Morris, including the replacementof the northbound lanes around St. Jean, but he said none of the improvements are slated to be ready in time for any potential flooding this year.

• Manitoba to flood-proof Highway 75 by raising road, rebuilding bridges

Dan Mazier, president of Keystone Agriculture Producers, said the fields in most agricultural areas in the Red River and Assiniboinevalleys are saturated and that while the recent warm weather has been a bonus, it's Mother Nature that will have the biggest impact on potential flooding.

"Mother Nature bats last usually. If she co-operates we'll be OK.I think the Red River basin and the western part of the province both basins are really wet this year so we'll have to watch it," said Mazier.

Five variables determine flood conditions: soil moisture at freeze-up in the fall, the channel capacity of rivers, moisture levels in snow, the rate of the snow melt and precipitation during the spring melt.

McMechan, whose municipality was devastatedby a mid-summer rain storm in 2014, said regardless of the outlook, people in her RM haven't lost the pioneer spirit.

"They're still, 'We'll be fine. We'll live through it, whatever it is.' Don't get your 'skirt-in-a-bunch' type of thing. They're very, very practical, resilient people," said McMechan.