Election fact-checker: Does the NDP jobs promise hold up?

South of the border, U.S. President Donald Trump loves to talk about "jobs, jobs, jobs."

Manitoba's political leaders appear to have a similar fixation in thisprovincial election campaign.

First, the Progressive Conservatives promised to create40,000 new private-sector jobs.Then the New Democrats pledged to create 50,000.

As part of an ongoing effort to hold political leaders accountable, CBC News is fact-checking comments and promises made byparty leaders at various times along the campaign trail.Comments made by politicians at campaign events, as well as in press releases,may be rated astrue, false, or muddy, inCBC News fact-checker articles.

Here's a check of the NDP's big jobs promise on Wednesday as well as a PC claim about a tourism pledge:

Claim by Manitoba NDP Leader Wab Kinew,Aug. 21

The claim:"Today I'm very proud to announce our commitment to spend $6.6 billion in strategic infrastructure investments so we can create 50,000 good new jobs during our first term in government."

Rating: Muddy as a bucket full of Red River water.

Here's why: With a pledge to spend $6.64 billion over four years on strategic infrastructure, the NDP are effectively promising to spend about $170million more per yearon strategic infrastructure that is, roads, bridges, buildings, airport runways and other construction works than the Tories plan to spend in this fiscal year's budget.

• Roads, hospitals, schools: Manitoba NDP promises more cash for infrastructure

In and ofitself, thepledge to spend more money is no problem, though it will make it more difficult for an NDP government to balance the provincial books within four years, as leader Wab Kinew has pledged.

The bigger problem is the Trump-like claim about creating 50,000 new jobs with that spending.

"It is an excellent number. It's a tremendous number. It's a number that we're very proud to announce here today," Kinew said on Wednesday.

"I studied economics. That was my first degree, and I can tell you that there is a standard formula that every public accounts department uses when they calculate the job creation rate per dollar invested on infrastructure."

Thestandard formula cited by the NDPsuggests governments can create somewhere in the range of 7.5 to 11 jobs for every $1 million spent on strategic infrastructure. This belief explainswhy governments sometimes borrow money to pay for infrastructure in order to stimulateeconomic growth.

• ANALYSIS Can the Tories double the rate of job creation in Manitoba?

The problem with Kinew's claim is the NDP leader is counting on all of his proposed infrastructure spending to account for the creation of 50,000 "new jobs" and not just the additional money he plans to spend, over and above the 2019-2020 PCbenchmark of $1.49 billion for strategic infrastructure.

Kinew is in effect planning to spend an additional$680 million over four years. The formula cited by his party, therefore, would create somewhere in the vicinity of5,000 to 7,500 new jobs over four years, not 50,000.

The NDP can only get to 50,000 jobs by suggesting every single loonie in their proposed $6.64-billion pot is a new loonie. But that would only be the case if the Tories spent nothing that is, zero dollars on strategic infrastructure this year. Or if you consider every construction job a new job every January.

Kinew could claim, credibly, that his pledge would pay for50,000 jobs. But the vast majority of those jobs would not be new.

It would be nigh-impossible tocreate50,000 new construction-industry jobs by spending an additional $680 million on infrastructure. That would amount to roughlydoubling the size of Manitoba's construction labour force by only spending 11.5 per cent more on infrastructure.

"I don't see how they can create that amount of employment with that level of investment," said Darryl Harrison, policy and research manager for the Winnipeg Construction Association.

"I don't think it's possible," added Chris Lorenc of the Manitoba Heavy Construction Association.

It isn't because the NDP made it clear the entire $6.64-billion kitty would be used for this purpose, not just the additional $680 million. Few people would buy the argument every construction job becomes a "new job" when the calendar flips over from New Year's Eve to New Year's Day.

Claim by Manitoba PC Leader Brian Pallister,Aug. 21

The claim:"Over the past four years, we have increased support for tourism by 71 per cent compared to the NDP's final term in office."

Rating: True.

Here's why: When PC leader Brian Pallister spokeabout "support for tourism," he meant support for Travel Manitoba, the arm's length agency that promotes the province.

• Progressive Conservative leader wants to bring more tourists to Manitoba

His claim is based on simple arithmetic. The last NDP government budget, for the 2015-2016 fiscal year, called for $7 million worth of support for Travel Manitoba.

The most recent PC government budget calls for $12.1 million in spending on Travel Manitoba. That's actually a 73-per-cent increase.

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