Slow spring melt leads to improved Manitoba flood outlook

Manitoba's flood forecaster has downgraded the province's risk of a major flood due to the slow spring melt for the second time in two weeks.

The weather the past two weeks has been "very favourable," with no major precipitation andtemperatures near 0 C, and it's expected to remain that way into the first week of April, said Fisaha Unduche, executive director of hydrologic forecasting and water management with Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure.

"In other words, this is very good news, because Mother Nature has been co-operating very favourably, and that is why we have downgraded our flood projections from our March outlook," he said at a news conference on Friday.

Transportation and Infrastructure MinisterDoyle Piwnuiksaid this past winter was Manitoba's third worst on record in terms of snowfall.

At the first flood outlook update of the season in February, the province predictedmajor flows along the Red River and its tributaries, including the Roseau, Rat and Pembina rivers.

In a worst-case scenario, Manitoba could have seen flooding similar to 2009, when high water caused nearly $7.5 million in damage in Winnipeg and forced hundreds of people out of their homes.

That outlook improved last week, when forecasters predicted crest levels on the Red Rivernorth of Winnipeg below 2011 levels.

Peak water levels are now expected to be closer to 2013 levels.

There remains a risk of moderate flooding for the Red River, but a lower risk of spring flooding in other Manitoba basins, including along the Assiniboine, Souris and Pembinarivers.

"Even though soil moisture heading into freeze-up was drier than normal, the amount of snowfall could lead to significant surface runoff, depending on future weather conditions," Unduche said Friday.

In a normal year, Manitoba would expect to receive about 80 millimetres of precipitation between now and the end of May, he said.

Current frost depth is around zero centimetres in most places, which further improves the flood outlook, because it allows easier absorption of surface water into the soil.

Near-zero temperatures south of the border have melted much of the snow in the U.S. portion of basin, while much of the snow near the border remains on the ground.

Unduche expects the Red River to peak at the Emerson border crossing around March 30 to April 2, with a peak in Winnipeg around April 3 to 5.

A second peak is expected to follow, sometime from April 10 to 20 in Emerson and April 12 to 22 in Winnipeg.

The province will operate the Red River Floodway to reduce water levels in Winnipegand the Portage Diversion to reduce flows on the lower Assiniboine River.

There is a risk of minor to moderate flooding in southeastern Manitoba, including along the Roseau River and in the Whiteshell region.

Northern Manitoba, including the Saskatchewan River basin,and the Interlakehave low risks of flooding, but the risk of ice jams remains.

Ice cutting and breaking is complete on lower Red River and the Icelandic Riverand is scheduled to begin at the outlet of the Portage Diversion Friday.