Manitoba expert in patient safety predicts 'silver tsunami' of injuries

An expert inpatient safetysaidhe expects to see a lot more reports of seniors falling in personal care homes.

A CBC I-Team investigation revealed that of 87 critical incidentsthat harmed patients in the last three months of 2013, more than half, or 47, involved seniors living in personal care homes.

Darrell Horn is a system safety consultant with Healthcare System Safety and Accountability, a private company. He teaches courses on medical investigations at York University. He was also a patient safety officer with the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority.

"That gives us a great cause for concern. Falls are considered using the best possible fall protection techniques to be highly preventable. But my experience as an investigator,they are some of the most difficult problems to tease out and to address," Horn said.

Horn saidthere is expense involved in infrastructure and design to prevent falls. One problem is ashortage of staff at personal care homes to monitor patients 24 hours a day, seven days a week, Horn said, adding the WRHA estimated a few years agothat the average cost of a fall and fracture is somewhere around $27,000to $28,000 per patient for treatment and rehab.

Horn questionedwhat resources are being put into fall prevention efforts. He saidthere is also a fiscal responsibility but also a moral imperative. Pain and suffering of patients can be extreme for someone over 70 years oldwho experiences a fall and fracture. Some he said, even die from their injuries.

While the numberof seniors falling is down compared to the same quarterlast year,Horn predicts over time the figureswill climbbecause of the increasing aging population.

"It's more like a tsunami approaching. Literally the silver tsunami. Aging baby boomers. They are hitting 65. When they hit 70 and 75, ourpersonal care homes are running at capacity now. And the requirements for care are becoming higher and higher with the three d's -delerium, dementia and depression. "

In a report by Manitoba Health for the period 2010-2012, there is acknowledgement of the magnitude of the problem.

"Since the beginning of critical incident report, falls have consistently been the highest reported category of critical incidents in Manitoba. Preventing falls is a priority of Manitoba health sector partners. All regional health authorities have implemented comprehensive falls risk assessment strategies."

In the latest numbers obtained by CBC, twoof the 47 critical incidents involving seniors in a personal are home resulted in death.

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