Manitoba flood forecast calls for 1979 levels

Prepare for the worst and hope against any more major spring snowstorms, say provincial officials who released Manitoba'slatest flood report on Monday.

The official flood forecast for Manitoba was scheduled to be releasedFriday, butofficials decided to leak some of it Monday over growing concerns thatManitoba could be hit with the same severe flooding expected south of the border.

Manitoba flood forecasters say even with favourable weather conditions from now through spring, some of the banks along the [Red River] valley will overflow and large portions of land will be under water.

Last week, officials in Grand Forks, N.D., declared a state of emergency after a winter storm dumped 13 centimetres of snow. The soil in the area was already saturated and had flood forecasters predicting high water levels.

Now, forecasters in North Dakota are suggesting the Red River will crest as high as 15 metres, about two metres lower than the flood that devastated the city and much of southern Manitoba in 1997.

The Red River flows north from the United States into Manitoba before emptying into Lake Winnipeg.

That storm has increased Manitoba's flooding risk to the level of the 1979 flood, Alf Warkinton, Manitoba's senior flood forecaster, said Monday.

The 1979 flood is ranked second only to the flood of the century in 1997, which caused $4.4 billion in damage along the Red River valley between Winnipeg and Grand Forks. About 80,000 people were evacuated from their homes.

Manitoba flood forecasters say even with favourable weather conditions from now through spring, some of the banks along the river valley will overflow and large portions of land will be under water.

There will be an access problem to fields for farmers and evacuation orders in some communities are likely.

Some of the communities hardest hit in the last flood, Ste. Agathe, Grande Pointe and Aubigny,all of them have new ring dykes that were not in place in 1997. The province alsohas three million sand bags stockpiled and ready to hold back the tide.

Despite the concerns, Ronuk Modha at the Manitoba Floodway Authority insists the province is ready to handle whatever comes this way.

Floodway has proven its worth

The floodway is a 48-kilometre channel between St. Norbert and Lockport,almost as wide as the Red River itself. Designed and built to protect Winnipeg by redirecting water around the city, the floodwaywas conceived after the devastating 1950 flood.

Between 1968 and 1999, it has saved Winnipeg 20 times, most notably in 1979 and 1997.

But following the 1997 event, officials decided to launch a$600-million-plus expansion project to deepen the channel and increase the level of protection from major floods with a one-in-90-year probability to those with a one-in-700-year probability.

The expansion project, begun in 2005, is near completion.

"As of right now, the floodway's capacity is more than double what it was in 1997, and we anticipate that we will be at the one-in-700-year flood protection level later this spring,"Modha said. "But at this point, we have significantly greater flood protection today than we did in 1997."

The detailed Manitoba flood forecast will be released Friday.