Manitoba flood: Officials express 'cautious optimism' about 2nd crest

Manitobaflood officials are breathing easier today as the first crest on the Assibiniboine River is nearly in Winnipeg and the dikes have held.

"How I'd describe where we're at today, I'd say is probably a sense of cautious optimism,"Emergency Measures Minister SteveAshtonsaid.

Communities along the swollen riverwent from unprepared to ready in just four days, as a result of a quick mobilization, he said, noting there's no way the province would have been ready without the 500 members of theCanadian Armed Forces, who may soon see theirdeployment reduced.

"I want to put on the record again, they were there for us.Thank you to the military, you did it again," Ashton said.

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The worries are not completely over, however, because a second crest on theAssiniboinehas started rising in western Manitoba.

The provincial government and military members areworking with municipalities along theAssiniboineand are on standby in caseanything, like a breach, happens.

The military'sAurora aircraft actually detected several leaks in the dikes during the night andcrews were immediately dispatched to fix them, provincial officials said on Thursday.

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Province revises 2nd crest again

The second crest is moving into the province as run-off from tributaries along theAssiniboinein both Saskatchewan and Manitoba flows into the river.

That crest is expected to reach St.Lazare,located near the Saskatchewan borderat the forks of the Assiniboine and Qu'Appell rivers, on Thursday or Friday.

Of those, nine are experiencing flooding or seepage and three have been damaged byfloodwatersfrom the first crest, the province said.

The province updated the forecast for the second crest of the Assiniboine River in Brandon late Thursday afternoon.

And predictions are approaching peak flows in the 2011 flood.

Late Thursday, officials said they are now predicting peak flows of 34,000 to 36,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) between Friday and July 13.

In 2011, peak flows on the Assiniboine in Brandon were 36,700 cfs.

Officials said they expect those flows to last for a day or two before tapering off.

Forecasts of the second crest at the Portage Diversion have also been revised.

Officials said peak flows of 46,000 to 47,500 cfs are now expected between July 14 and 16 lasting a day or two.
Peak flows in 2011 in Portage were 53,100 cfs.

Provincial officials hadsaid Wednesday thewater levels from the second crest will be lower than the first but last for a few days.

EarlierThursday, however, they changed their stance, saying the secondcrestwill likely be above first peak but below 2011 levels.

"The forecast is for nothing like we saw in 2011," but there are concerns now for the Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin areas,Ashtonsaid, echoing Blight's remarks.

The latest revision puts the revised forecast much closer to 2011 levels.

Officials said the crest should hit Winnipeg about four days after it hits Brandon.

Dikes hold in first crest

The first crest of the river reached the Portage Diversion Wednesday night with a peak flow of 52,100cfs 34,100cfsthrough the Portage Diversion while 18,000cfsremained on the river towards Winnipeg.

That 52,100cfsislike 35 Olympic-sized swimming pools going by each minute. On average, the flowrate of the river is only 1,600cfs.

Kam Blight, reeve of the Rural Municipality of Portage la Prairie, said there have been no issues with leaksin his RM but theconcern now is if any strongwinds comealong, whipping the water andputting more strain on the dikes.

Until Thursday, the biggest worry had beenin the Delta Beach area, which isvulnerable to winds and waves from Lake Manitoba. Levels on the lake havebeenrising due to the water from the Portage Diversion being emptied into it.

The diversion is a 29-kilometre channel that redirects floodwaters from the AssiniboinenorthtoLake Manitoba.

But despite the water coming in,the RM has lifted its mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders for Delta Beach properties locatedalong the diversion. The order was originally put in place due to concerns residents could be cut off by water on the roads.

Delta Beach residents skeptical flood flight over

But some residents said the flood flight is far from over there.

Jody Fletcher, who has been a permanent resident in Delta Beach for 21 years, refused to leave after the evacuation order. She said it's a small relief that the evacuation order isover, for now.But she thinks it could bereinstated.

"If I was a betting person I'd say there's about a 75 per cent chance that sometime between now and freeze-up, we'll have to go," she said. "The only solution to this is the permanent channel at the other end of the lake. This is not going to go away."

Fletcher said she's still worried that strong north winds on the lake will raise water levels at Delta Beach.

She said after the 2011 flood, her family placed massive boulders on the beach to protect their property against the wind and waves.

Fletcher said now, because the water is so high, the boulders look tiny.

And instead of the quiet her family used to appreciate at the lake, there is now only the roar of the wind on the water.

Fletcher said she hopes Winnipeggers appreciate what farmers and property owners on the lakes are going through to keep them dry.

Forgotten by the province

St. Lazare has been dealing with high water on both the Assiniboine and Qu'Appelle Rivers since June 30 and only on Wednesday nightdid the province send in sandbags to help.

"They came out yesterday [Tuesday] and it was so nice to see all the help that came out. I don't know offhand who organized it, but it was really nice to see volunteers from town come and sandbag to help," said Giselle Fouillard, whose home is surrounded by water.

I don't know what to believe anymore, I just believe what [I see]. I go out and look at my wall of my shopmy own personal gaugethat's what I believe.- OwenJessop, St. Lazare resident

Many people in the area have expressed anger on social media, saying theyve been forgotten by the province.

But CAO Ricky Fouillard said the village didn't ask for help from the province until Wednesday.

Up until then, village officialsfigured they could handle the flood water on their own, he said.

They were keeping track of the water coming in from Saskatchewan and the overland flooding, and they were making sandbags for the community, but it just became too much, Fouillard said.

Owen Jessop, who lost his home to flooding in 2011, rebuilt on a pad raised about two metres higher than his old home. He is surrounded by water again, and the level is nearly up to his pad.

He and others in the community are waiting for information from the province about how high the water will get. But hes not even sure what to make of any information they get.

I don't know what to believe anymore, I just believe what [I see]. I go out and look at my wall of my shop my own personal gauge that's what I believe," he said.

Torrential rains

The flooding has been caused by torrential rains during the Canada Day weekend in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Fifty municipalities and communities across Manitoba, mainly in the southwest and Interlake regions, have declared a state of local emergency since June 28, and 729 people have been forced from their homes and communities due to flooding in the provincethis year.

Combined with states of local emergency in Saskatchewan, there have been more than 110 municipalities under that banner, while the Manitoba government has declared a provincial state of emergency.

In addition to the Canadian Armed Forces, more than 330 staff from Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation, 20 staff from other government departments, 115 provincial department volunteers, 120 Manitoba Hydro volunteers and 75 redeployed forest firefighters from across the province are supporting the flood-fighting efforts in Manitoba.

Staff from the Alberta Emergency Management Agency are also providing assistance.