PCs, NDP now tied for voter support in Manitoba, new poll suggests, but Winnipeggers still favour NDP

A new Probe Research poll suggests the governing Progressive Conservatives are tied in popularity with the opposition NDPless thanfour months ahead ofthe next provincial election.

The Winnipeg Free Press-commissioned poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults, done from May 31 to June 13, suggestsHeather Stefanson's Progressive Conservatives and Wab Kinew's NDP eachenjoy the support of 41 per cent of decided voters across Manitoba.

That suggests support for the NDP has dropped three percentage points since March and five points since December.

Meanwhile, support in the poll for the PCs isup three points since Marchand six points since December.

The surge in popularity for the Tories isn't ananomaly, but part of an ongoing trend, Probe president Scott MacKay said.

"It was something we were sort of expecting. Generally what happens is when an actual campaign gets underway, the numbers change," he said.

"Typically, if you look at the experience of Alberta recently, the NDP had led there for years up until about the time that thewrit was dropped and then things started to tighten up and ultimately reverse."

Among poll respondents, 10 per cent said they'dvote for the Manitoba Liberals if the election were held the day they were polled, five per cent said they'd supportthe Green Party, and three per cent said they would back a party not currently represented in the legislature.

The NDP continuesto hold the biggest lead among voters in Winnipeg, the poll suggests, but its advantage appeared to slipthere, as well. The poll found48 per cent of Winnipeg voters preferred the NDP, down from 53 per cent in March, but still well above the 32 per cent who considerthe PCs their party of choice.

"I believe that with these numbers today in the city, the conservatives would not win the election," MacKay said.

Still, the Progressive Conservatives are makinginroads. Christopher Adams, adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says Manitobans are noticing the party's overhaul under Heather Stefanson, who became premier in late 2021.

"They've really changed their priorities compared to the [former premier] Brian Pallister days. They're spending as much or more than what the [previous]NDP[government] had been spending in previous years.

"I would say they've changed theirpolicy priorities much more oriented to spending rather than saving."

Aside from the strategy shift, Adams said the PCs have reaped the benefits ofsignificant advertising spending to extol government accomplishments,more spending in areas such as health care. Stefansonhas alsomainly reined in her public gaffes. Her most notable one was celebrating her son's hockey team in the legislature before answering anNDP question about a woman who tragically died in a failed air transfer.

But he said the Tories stillhave work to do to buildsupport within Winnipeg and among women voters. The poll suggests only a quarter of Winnipeg women would vote for the PCs.

Cabinet minister Obby Khan, the MLA for Fort Whyte, said the improving poll results showthe governmentisresponding to what Manitobans want, which includes improvements to health care, public safety and affordability.

"We will continue to invest in what Manitobans want and they're seeing that," Khan said. "It's reflected in the poll, which is really encouraging."

NDP Leader Wab Kinew argued, despite the poll suggesting his party is losing support and the sitting government is gaining ground, that Manitobanswant a new government.

"What these results are informative of is that there's a desire for change in Manitoba," Kinew said.

"Our team has a real opportunity to make things better with health care, make life more affordable. If you're somebody who's perhaps voted for a different party, maybe you're a disgruntled PC, let's work together this year so we can bring in a new government here in Manitoba."

Some Liberal support appears to bebleeding toward the NDP. The poll suggests only around 40 per cent of people who voted for the Liberals in the 2019 election are planning to back the party in the upcoming election.

Outside Winnipeg, more than half the poll respondents planned to vote for a PC candidate, while three in 10 said they expectedto vote for the NDP.

Probe Research recruited 548 poll respondents with a live telephone operator and the other 452 people using robocalls. All respondents completed the survey online. Minor statistical weighting was used to ensure age and gender characteristics reflected the province's population, Probe said.

A poll with that sample size has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points 95 per cent of the time, Probe said.

The provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 3.

PCs, NDP now tied for voter support in Manitoba poll suggests

1 year ago

Duration 1:48

A new Probe Research poll suggests the governing Progressive Conservatives are tied in popularity with the opposition NDP less than four months ahead of the next provincial election