Manitoba NDP take 11 percentage point lead over PCs: Probe poll

Another survey of Manitoba voter intentions has the New Democrats well ahead of the Progressive Conservatives.

A Probe Research poll commissioned the Winnipeg Free Press and CTVsuggests 49 per cent of voters support the NDP,compared to 38 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives and nine per cent for the Liberals.

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted over the phone and online from Sept. 7 to Sept. 18. A purely random sample of that size would have a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

The 11-point lead for the NDP exceeds thesix-point margin froman Angus Reid Institute poll published on Wednesday.

"Things are going very well for the NDP, but there's also hazards in those numbers," said Scott MacKay, Probe Research's president, in a telephone interview. "It can lead to complacency."

MacKay said he is reminded of 2003, when the NDP went into an election with very flattering polls suggesting they were poised to wrest huge swaths of seats away from the PCs. When all the votes were counted on election night, the NDP only won three more seats.

NDP spokesperson Rebecca Widdicombe said in a statement that the Probe poll suggests Manitobans agree there should be a change in government.

PC campaign manager Marni Larkin, meanwhile, said the numbers do not jibe with what she is seeing at the door.

"I've got my head down and I'm going to drive out every single vote Ican until election day," she said in a telephone interview.

Liberal spokesperson Colin Roy said his party's own numbers are more favourable.

"Manitobans need as many Manitoba Liberals in the legislature as possible to hold the next government, possibly a minority government, accountable," he said in a statement.

• Read full coverage of the 2023 Manitoba election here

The Probe poll also suggests Manitobans have a far more favourable opinion of NDP Leader Wab Kinew than they do of PC Leader Heather Stefanson. The poll suggests 51 per cent of voters approve of Kinew, compared to 32 per cent for Stefanson.

MacKay said he finds Stefanson's low approval ratings difficult to understand. The survey suggests 61 per cent of Manitobans disapprove of her, compared to39 per cent who disapprove of Kinew.

"I didn't think people would really dislike her that much," he said, adding he would expect that sort of disdain to be reserved for extraordinarypolitical characters like former U.S. president Donald Trump."This seems to be avery intense reaction to her."