Once a trickle, now a torrent: What it means when veteran MLAs leave the Manitoba PC caucus

What started with a single droplet in the spring of 2022 has coalesced into a torrent for Manitoba's Progressive Conservatives, a caucus leaking MLAs as if thefloor of the legislative chamber was made of mesh.

In the space of seven months, nine out of 36 members of the PC caucus have either resigned from the legislature or signalled they will not run for office again. That works out to a churn rate of 25 per cent.

Since the beginning of June, the Tories have effectively lost four cabinet ministers, four backbenchers and the Speaker of the legislature. Six more PC MLAs have yet to declare their intentions about running inthe provincial election expected this fall.

While this exodus does not in and of itself spell doom for the PCs in 2023 most of the departures are in constituencies where voters are unlikely to elect anyone other than a Progressive Conservative the scale of the decampment is striking during an election year.

"It sends the message or it could potentially send the message, from a perception perspective that long-standing MLAs are sort of abandoning the ship," said Kelly Saunders, a Brandon University political science professor.

"That's not how you want to portray a government that is seeking re-election and trying to get voters excited again."

The exodus started in June, when former finance minister Scott Fielding resigned as the MLA for Kirkfield Park. He was replaced in Decemberby former Winnipeg city councillor Kevin Klein in a squeaker of a byelection.

After Fielding's announcement, thepace of the departures quickened. The past week has been nothing but drip, drip drip for the PCs, who will compete this fall without SpeakerMyrna Driedgerin Roblin, or current cabinet membersEileen Clarke in Agassiz, Cliff Cullen in Spruce Woods and Alan Lagimodierein Selkirk.

BackbenchersRalph Eichlerin Lakeside, Blaine Pedersen in Midland, Dennis Smookin La Verendryeand Ian Wishartin Portage la Prairie have also said they won't run again.

Of those constituencies, only Selkirk is in danger of flipping this fall to the NDPor Liberals. Prior to 2016, when Lagimodiere defeated 26-year New Democrat MLA Greg Dewar, no Progressive Conservativehad even been elected in Selkirk.

Nonetheless, the departure of so many veteran PC MLAssends a very powerful signal. Many of these veteran Toriesspent years toiling in opposition whilethe NDP was in power under Gary Doer, thenGreg Selinger.

With the PCs badly trailing the NDP in a series of recent Probe Researchpolls, it would berational for long-serving elected officials several of whom are of retirement ageto question their commitment to continuing public service on the benches opposite a Wab Kinew NDP government.

The decision for nine of them not to run again with six more still undeclared or undecided in terms of their intentions strongly suggests the core of thisparty does not like its chances this fall.

Premier Heather Stefanson, however, is putting on a brave face.

"Every organization needs to reinvigorate itself with new people and new ideas," the premier who replaced Brian Pallister after his 2021 resignation said Wednesday in a statement.

"I look forward to welcoming even more talented individuals to representManitobans across our province as we continue the important work to build a stronger, more prosperous future for all Manitobans."

'Not good news for the PCs': Brandon U prof

In addition to the number of PC MLAs who won't contest this fall's elections, the party also has to contend with the optics of the timing of the most recentdeparture announcements.

Ideally, they do not happen the same year as a vote.

"This is not good news for the PCs. The timing could not be more unfortunate," said Brandon University's Saunders.

"It's not like we didn't know when the election was coming, right? So for someonethat has been thinking about retirement, this is not something they think of overnight."

Stefanson dismissed the idea the timing of the departuresis a concern.

"I was fully aware of their intentions to not seek re-election, and wanted to give them the opportunity to communicate their future plans on their own terms," said the premier, who has not spoken publicly in an official capacity since Dec. 16.

Of the six PC MLAs who have yet to declare their intentions, three occupy seats the PCs stand a chance of losing without an incumbent in the race.

Shannon Martin has not stated whether he intends to run again in the north Winnipeg constituency of McPhillips, which he won by only 105 votes in 2019. The NDP will be working hard to claim the swing riding this fall.

Outside Winnipeg, bothBrad Michaleskiin Dauphin andRick Wowchukin Swan River have yet to say whether they will run again. Prior to 2016, Dauphin was NDP territory for 35 years, while Swan River was represented by New Democrats for 26 years.

The three other undeclared Tories represent seats that are far more likely to remain blue, regardless of the candidate: Cathy Cox in Kildonan-River East, Reg Helwer in Brandon West and Kelvin Goertzen in Steinbach.

If any of the latter choose to join the PC exodus, the partly will in all likelihood only suffer a symbolic blow. The question right now is whether this version of theProgressive Conservatives can afford to sustain even symbolic losses.