President Donald Trump turns off Canadian travellers: poll

Nearly a third of Manitobans want to stay away from President Donald J. Trump.

A new poll by Probe Research and the Winnipeg Free Pressshows about 29 per cent ofManitobans, or roughly 380,000 people, will avoid travel to the United States after Trump is sworn in as president on Jan. 20, 2017.

The number is high enough to be awarning for border cities that rely on Canadian shoppers and tourists, said ScottMacKay, president of Winnipeg-based Probe Research.

• Justin Trudeau invites Donald Trump to visit Canada in call that marks 'strong beginning'

"200,000 people, if they were all to follow through on that, that would have a very large impact on the travel, tourism and hospitality businesses," he said.

The Probe poll was conducted over the phone between Nov. 29, 2016 and Dec. 11, 2016 and with a sample size of 1,000 people. One can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Women especially repelled by Trump

More women than men said they would avoid travel to the U.S. under Trump. Nearly half, or49 per cent, of middle-aged women (aged 35 to 54) surveyedsaid they were now less likely to travel to the U.S.

That demographic is an important one for businesses that rely on cross-border shoppers, said Barry Wilfahrt, president of the Grand Forks and East Grand Forks Chamber of Commerce. The metropolitan regionstraddles theborder of Minnesota and North Dakota and is located about 230 kilometres south of Winnipeg.

Canadians represent about 20 per cent of overall retail sales and between a quarter and a third of all hotel business in Grand Forks, according to the chamber.

"Anything that could potentially adversely affect the Canadian travel to the United States, particularly to Grand Forks, it's obviously a concern to us," said Wilfahrt.

Those who used to be the most likely to travel to the States such as more affluent South Winnipeggers were the most anti-Trump, said MacKay

For instance, 62 per cent of those who said they were less likely to travel Stateside under a Trump administration earn $60,000 or more a year.

"They are people who are a little more affluent, they come from places like South Winnipeg and other places that tend to go down to Fargo and Grand Forks a lot to visit," he said. "That's going to have some kind of implications for the U.S. and travel and tourism."

• David Foster 'politely' declined to help with Donald Trump's inauguration

While pollsters didn't look outside Manitoba to see what sentiments were across the country, Manitoba could be a bellweather.

"Manitoba is very often the average place in Canada. I don't think Manitoba would be that different from anywhere else," said MacKay.

Canadians seek value and they seek selection and that's what we offer in Grand Forks.BarryWilfahrt, Grand Forks Chamber of Commerce

"I know we do a lot of cross-border shopping just because of our proximity to the border but there are many places in Canada that are like that."

Wilfahrt said he takes all polls with a grain of salt and believes after Canadiansget used to President Trump they will resume their old habits like annual getaways to towns close to the border like Grand Forks.

"This election is maybe a little bit more polarizing than it's been in the past but I expect that once President Trump's first 100 days are over it will be business as usual," the Chamber of Commerce president said.

"At the end of the day, Canadians seek value and they seek selection and that's what we offer in Grand Forks. That's why they'll continue to come down here."

Meanwhile, 62 per cent of those surveyed said Trump's election will have zero effect on their travel habits,while four per cent said they were more likely to visit. Five per cent were unsure.

A Mainstreet/Postmediapoll conducted during the U.S. election found that Manitoba supported Trump more than any other province with28 per centof people in the province surveyed saying they would vote for the Republican candidate