Quebec's business sector welcomes Biden win, hoping for more stable trade relations

Even the prospect of protectionist trade polices from the incoming U.S. president did not damper relief in Quebec economic circles at Joe Biden's election win.

Representatives of Quebec's lumber and aluminum industries expressed hope this weekend that a BidenWhite House will bring more stability to bilateral trade relations, which had beenmarked by turbulence under outgoing President Donald Trump.

"We will go from a climate of uncertainty to a climate of predictability. That will help with decision-making," said Jean Simard, head of the Aluminum Association of Canada.

In August, the Trump administration decided suddenly to slap a 10 per cent tariff on imports of Canadian aluminum, the vast majority of which is produced in Quebec.

The tariffs were lifted roughly a month later, but the U.S. thenimposed limits on the amount of aluminum that was allowed to entertariff-free, and vowed to revisit that limit after the election.

In 2018, the U.S. had alsoimposed a 10 per cent tariffon Canadian aluminum. It was removedabout a year later while the two countries, along with Mexico, were hammering out an update to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Though protectionist "Buy American" provisions were a central plank of Biden's platform, he has also signalled he is more interested in limitingoverproductionof aluminum in China than clashingwith traditional allies.

"Donald Trump represents uncertainty," said Sylvain Maltais, president of a steelworkers union in the Saguenay, where most of Quebec's smelters are located.

No miracle solutions to softwood lumber

Quebec's lumber producers also had to contend with Trump's aggressive trade policies and disdain for multilateral institutions.

In 2017, the U.S. government slapped a 20 per cent tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, claiming it was unfairly receiving public subsidies. Those tariffscost lumber producers in Quebec roughly $800 million and forced plants to cut staff.

The World Trade Organization ruled in August the duties were unfair. But the Trump administrationappealed the decision to aWTO panel that it isalso actively trying to dismantle, a sign that the adminstration hasno intention of lifting the tariffs.

It is not clear, though,that a Biden administration means a quickresolution to the softwood lumber dispute.

"The softwood lumber issue had evolved very slowly. There were some gains at the WTO. But I think the Biden administration and the Democratic party have very protectionist tendencies," saidPierre Corbeil, who heads the forestry committee of the Quebec Union of Municipalities.

Corbeil, who is also mayor ofVal-d'Or, one of Quebec's centres of lumber production, said he still welcomed Trump's ouster. He expected Biden would not seek toantagonize Canada further in the lumber dispute.

"We'll see what happens. But I'm pretty sure it won't be their priority when they take office," Corbeil said.

'Managed free trade' the new norm

The Bidenpresidency is likely to consolidate a shift toward more "managed" free trade, said John Parisella, who served as Quebec's delegate general in New York City during the years Biden was vice-president under Barack Obama.

"There will always be protectionist reflexes that force us to be ready," said Parisella. "We can expect more managed free trade than perhaps we were used to before the pandemic, and certainly than what we saw in the 1980s and 1990s."

He said when it comes to trade, theimportant difference between Biden and Trump is style.

Trump is bellicose and content to air grievances publicly, whereas Biden can be expected to use more conventional diplomatic channels.

"Biden knows Canada; he has a great appreciation for Canada. So I would expect it to be closer to normality," Parisellasaid.

WATCH:Wanda Kagan, a high school friend of Kamala Harris, reacts to her win

Wanda Kagan, a high school friend of Kamala Harris, reacts to her win

4 years ago

Duration 2:10

Kagan attended Westmount High School with Harris in 1981.

AsPremier Franois Legaultwaited, along with the rest of the world, for the outcome of the presidentialelectionto be decided, he said Quebec would push to keep trade as free as possible with the States.

"Historically, Democrats are more protectionist than Republicans, but in the last four years we've had a very protectionist Republican president, so no matter who wins, Biden or Trump, we're going to have to keep fighting,"he said.

With the outcome of the election now decided, Quebec's trade delegates in the U.S. will begin building networks as the new administration takes shape.

Legaultmay be hoping too thatthe Montreal ties ofthe next vice-president,Kamala Harris, will give him an in.

On Saturday, the premier issued a rare tweet in English to Harris, who went to high school in Montreal.

"We hope to see you soon," Legault said. "You will always be welcome in Quebec."