Quebec election 2014: 5 things to watch

The results of the 2014 Quebec election will reveal a lot more than whowill form the next provincial government.

As the numbers roll in, here's a list of the top five things thatQuebecerswill be watching closely:

The strength of the Liberal Party vote

Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard has remained confident that a majority government is in his grasp, but theres a real possibility that Quebecers could be facing back-to-back minority governments.

Throughout the campaign, Couillardstayedmum on whether or not he would consider a coalitionin that scenario.

A Liberal minoritycould lead to an alliance betweenCouillard's party and the Coalition Avenir Qubec, but the lasting-power of that type of coalition would be uncertain. As the hearings at theCharbonneaucommission continue, there is the potential that allegations could emerge and taint the Liberals, scaring off anyCAQsupport.

• Philippe Couillard's Leader Profile

On the other hand, astrong majority for the Liberals would freeCouillardfrom compromises, allowing his government to push through its revamped Plan Nord and maritime strategy.

Couillard's success in his own riding of Robervalwill also reveal how successful the leader was in winning over voters in Quebec's traditionally sovereigntistregions.

The fate of the Parti Qubcois and Pauline Marois

Pauline Marois gambled big on this election, and, if theParti Qubcois doesn't emergevictorious,there's a big question mark surrounding the future of the party and Marois's position at its helm.

Marois triggered the election with her eyes set on a majority government. Ifher party obtains a minority, it will be a bitter-sweet victory thePQgovernment will be right back where it started.

If thePQis defeated, it will be a significant blow to the future of the woman once known as Quebecs Concrete Lady.

Many believe the ballot box question this election is whether or not there'ssupport for areferendum. ChristianBourque, the executive vice-president ofLgerMarketing, says thePQsdefeat would send a clear message.

• Pauline Marois triggers 2014 Quebec election
• Pauline Marois's Leader Profile

[It would be] sort of saying 'No' to a referendum for the third time, Bourque said.

The surge of the Coalition Avenir Qubec

Before the legislature was dissolved, the CAQ held 18 seats in the National Assembly.

Expectationsfor Franois Legault's party were low going into the election, but if they manage to come out with more seats, it will mean the CAQis on the path to escapingits"third party" status and Quebecers now considerita legitimate option.

TheCAQ'ssuccess could also end up hurting the Liberals by winningover the voters who don't want to support the PQ, but aren't ready to see the Liberals return to power.

Legault has refused to say whether he would consider a coalition with Couillard's Liberals, but it's a real possibility that his party could end up holding the balance ofpower if the Liberals win a minority government.

LgerMarketing's vice-president says Quebecers could see the creation ofa sort of loose coalition with the Liberals [and the CAQ]."

Whether or not Legault holds onto his seat is a big factor in his partys status, a coalition of former PQ and Liberal members.

• Franois Legault's Leader Profile

According to Bourque, if Legault loses his own riding of L'Assomption, there could be some floor-crossing.

Some of the senior CAQ members are sort of closet-Liberals, Bourque said.

If they dont hold many seats, if Legault is beaten, then I would suspect within a couple of months, some people would cross over.

The left-wing vote

The turning point of the election campaign was arguably when PaulineMarois introduced candidate Pierre Karl Pladeau.

• Pierre Karl Pladeaus candidacy stirs up PQ membership

The media mogul was meant to symbolize that the PQ had the business community's backing, but it may have also cost the PQa significant chunk of its left-wing support.

Many union members have less-than-fond memories ofPladeau,the former president ofQubecorMdia which owns several media properties such asthe French-language newspaper JournaldeMontral.

Memories of the 2009lockout at that newspaperwhich lasted two years are still fresh for many of those affected.

Qubec Solidaire Leader FranoiseDavid has capitalized on Marois's misstep.

• Franoise David's Leader Profile

Bourque says there's increasing support for David's sovereigntistparty among allophones and anglophones.

I think that says something about some of the left not recognizing themselves in the PQ, Bourque said.

Bourque said that for the Quebecers who voted for the NDP in the federal election, Qubec Solidiare is the obvious choice.

For half of [QSs supporters] its a left of centre party, period.

Montreal vs.the rest of the Quebec

Montreal, home to a multilingual and diverse population, is known for often being at oddswiththe rest of Quebec.

Bourque explains the urban centre tends to lean left, and more liberal than the province's regions.

"In Montreal, Parti Qubcois support depends on Qubec Solidaire's strength," Bourque said.

If the polls show a decline in PQ support in Montreal, it will be a clear sign the party has turned away from its leftist roots, at least in the eyes of the electorate.