A winter of discontent? What the political season holds in store for Quebec
Incentives are mounting for opposition politicians to challenge the status quo
Quebec is entering a volatile political season.A provincial election is on the horizon and, after remaining static for years, polls now suggest a fundamental realignment of the party order is a possibility.
More proximate surprises could be in store atthe Parti Qubcois leadership review this weekend, in next month's byelectionin a one-time Liberal strongholdand in province-wide municipal elections at the start of November.
These political contests come as politicians at all levels of governmentare confronting a series of divisive issues:the temporary surge in asylum seekers crossing the Quebec border illegally, a bill that could regulate what Muslim women can wear in public, an investigation into systemic racism that many feel unnecessary.
When, following a demonstration by far right group La Meute,Quebec City MayorRgisLabeaumespoke of an "immense unease" in the province, he had several of these issues in mind.
Labeaumeblamed the unease on the reluctance of Quebec's political class to discuss these issues openly.
Granted few politicians wade into discussions with as much abandon asLabeaume,but the volatility of the coming season is beingfed less by the silence of Quebec politicians, than their jockeying overwhat is unacceptable to say in public.
The Overtonwindow
Amid the uneven global surge in populism, one common way of explaining the sudden willingness of voters to buck common sense is by invoking theOvertonwindow.
The concept, the product of an otherwise obscure libertarian thinker by the name of Joseph Overton, has come to refer to the range of ideas that are widely acceptable to the public.
Overtonbelieved that by advocating unthinkable ideas cogently, elitescan help push less radicalproposals into the acceptable range. Over time, so the theory goes, what was onceunthinkable becomes mainstream.
The spike, beginning in late July, of mainly Haitian asylum seekers coming into the province from the U.S. provoked skirmishes around Quebec'sownOvertonwindow.
Last month, for instance, PQ leader Jean-Franois Lise described the asylum seekers as "Justin Trudeau's guests." An MNA from his own party, Franois Gendron, called him out, if politely.
"I would have preferred [he] not have used these words," saidGendron, dean of the PQ caucus. That sentiment was echoed byLouiseHarel, who wasa PQ MNA for more than 25 yearsand a former interim leader of the party.
Liserebuffed the criticism, saying he was merely providing a bit of real talk. "I say things as they are. I am authentic. I think, I say," he told reporters.
The PQ is down in the polls, trailing not just the governing Liberals but the Coalition Avenir Qubec as well, whoarenow within spitting distance of the lead. On identity issues, the prevailing wisdom is that the PQ and CAQ are competing for the same voters.
For his part, CAQ Leader Franois Legaultused the asylum issue to repeat calls for lower immigration levels, calling the border a "sieve" and warning of a "stampede" towards Quebec.
When Premier Philippe Couillard accused him of fear mongering,Legaultretorted that voters were growing tired of his "lectures about tolerance when faced with immigration."
The CAQ leader said the coming byelection in Louis-Hbertwould be their chance to teach Couillard a lesson in turn.
Breaking the mould
The Liberals, save for an 18-month spell, have governed the province since 2003. Dislodging them from power means convincing voters to entertain a set of policies that haven't held sway for more than a decade.
On immigration, and a host of other identity issues,Lise and Legaultare working to make acceptable positions that were for many years outside the province's social-democratic mainstream.
Their political futures depend on breaking with that tradition, which the Liberals have claimed so successfully.
The volatility of the coming political season lies inthe proliferation ofopportunities and incentives to move Quebec's Overtonwindow.
In the coming months, Quebecersare likely to hear politicians speak in ways they haven't done before, and entertain ideas they haven't done before. Theymay even end up electing someone they haven't done before.
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