Hopes for a white Christmas in N.B. dashed again

For those dreaming of a white Christmas this year in New Brunswick, it's time for a wake-up call.

For most of the province, what you see is what you get.

And for the rest, it's highly unlikely that the little snow cover already on the ground will survive the upcoming forecast, said Jill Maepea, a meteorologist with Environment Canada.

"Unfortunately, based on our latest data and our forecast, it does not look like New Brunswick will be seeing a white Christmas," said Maepea.

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Data indicates that green Christmases are five times more likely in Fredericton within the last 30 years. And since 1988, Saint Johns chances of a green Christmas have more than doubled.

The only flurries in the forecast between now and Christmas Day are in the southwest, starting Thursday into Friday, she said.

"That may create a little light layer of snow, but for the rest of the province, right now, there is virtually no snow cover."

With above-zero temperatures predicted for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for much of the province, it doesn't bode well for whatever snow is on the ground.

Judging by historical data provided by Environment Canada, New Brunswickers should get used to seeing more green Christmases in the future.

In Fredericton, for example, green Christmases are more than five times as likely in the most recent 32 years 1988-2021 as in the 33 preceding years, 1955 to 1987. Fredericton only trailed Sarnia, Ont.,for the biggest drop in white Christmases.

Saint John's chance of seeing a green Christmas during the same time frame has more than doubled, while in Moncton, it hasn't quite doubled.

In general, said Maepea, southern areas of the province have the lowest chance of a white Christmas.

"Areas in the northwest Edmundston over towards Campbellton those areas will see a lot more chances of having a white Christmas," she said.

"So for this year, it's a lot more rare for them to have a non-white Christmas, which we are expecting this year."

Maepea said last year was actually considered a white Christmas by Environment Canada standards, which defines it as "2cm of snow on the ground Christmas morning. And although last year we did have a very mild rainy event right before Christmas, it did leave that thin layer of snow on the ground for most communities in New Brunswick last year."

Green Christmases, "definitely seem to be more common, especially in these Maritime-type climates," she said.

Having grown up in northwestern Ontario, Maepea experienced her first green Christmas only after moving to the Maritimes.

But even her hometown no longer boasts a 100 per cent chance of having snow, according to Environment Canada's historical look at white Christmases.

In fact, very few places can still expect onewith any certainty. Of the municipalities on the list, only Iqaluit, Kenora, Ont., Whitehorse and Yellowknife have had white Christmases every year on record.

Environment Canada also included a category called "perfect Christmas." It's defined as "snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning and snow in the air sometime Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas based on period 1955-2007."

It's given as a percentage and not one community has a perfect record. Topping the list of communities measured for the full period is Stephenville, N.L., at 64 per cent.

To compare the three New Brunswick cities on the list, Fredericton has only had a perfect Christmas 30 per cent of the time, Moncton 40 per centand Saint John 36 per cent.

Please bring snow

While New Brunswick ski hills likely have snow on their Christmas wish lists, they don't leave anything to chance or Santa.

Jordan Cheney, general manager of Ski Crabbe Mountain, northwest of Fredericton, said they've been taking advantage of December's cold days and have been stockpiling machine-made snow.

"Ultimately, we're just farmers of snow."

He said Crabbe is "about 150 hours into an 800-hour snow-making season."

Cheney said it's a good start, but thanks to rain storms this week and last, any natural snow that fell is now gone.

He said machine-made snow is actually "much more resilient than natural snow." He said it sheds water more easily than real snow so "the first line of defence" is to leave it in piles because "a pile of snow will withstand warm and wet better than a thin layer of spread-out snow."

If temperatures warm up and the pile melts and then freezes again, Cheney said they have equipment that can "bust that stuff open and tillers can chew it up and create a surface."

Although thawing and freezing "makes things harder, it's nothing that we're not used to."

Cheney said temperature ups and downs are becoming a part of doing business.

He said they're also getting used to the unpredictability of December temperatures.

Even with all that uncertainty, he said the hill is usually open around Christmas occasionally earlier "but it's never usually much later."

Thanks to milder temperatures and an extended power outage at the hill, Crabbe's scheduled Friday opening has been postponed to at least Dec. 26, said Cheney on Thursday.

Poley Mountain, near Sussex, is also delaying its planned opening Friday. According to its Facebook page, the "earliest possibility for skiing/riding will be this Saturday, December 23rd, but only Mother Nature can ultimately decide."

Mont Farlagne in Edmundston, meanwhiile,has noprojected opening date. Sugarloaf Park near Atholville is waitingfor colder temperatures to resume snow-making, according to its Facebook page. The hill is expected to open Dec. 27, according to an emailed response.