Baby totals for 2018 likely higher than provincial estimate, says official

Estimates by Statistics Canada, and the province's historical margin of error, bring into question the claim that only 5,448 children were born in the province last year.

Statistics Canadaestimates that 5,058 children were born in the province during the first three quarters of 2018, only 390 fewer than Service New Brunswick's estimate for the entire year.

"What takes time and is difficult to predict is the followup work needed to be done to finalize a birth registration once received from a facility in instances where information and certification [parents' signatures] are missing," said Kilfoil.

"Some records may be completed after one communication while others may take two or more followup communications to get completed."

Drastic variations

Historically, Service New Brunswick's year-end estimate has been off by a wide margin.

The Crown corporation announced 6,015 babies were born in 2016, but final numbers on the its website indicated 6,550 babies were born, a change of 535.

The numbers for 2017 were even further apart.

Service New Brunswick announced a preliminary birth number of 5,738, but 6,441 babies were born, a change of 703.

Kilfoil concedes that more context is required to understand the numbers but they part of a news release about baby names, and the estimate was included because suchinformation is expected.

"If we put out a story about baby names, the logical next question from reporters is how many babies were born," Kilfoilsaid.

"That is why a number was added based on the info we had at the time."

Moving up

While the reported number of births may appear to show a looming demographic crisis for the province, the opposite may be true.

Population estimates for the province have generally been on the upswing since 2016, with the province only seeing a decrease in the first quarter of 2017.

The population is estimated to have grown by 11,658 people since 2016, with 4,028 of that increase coming in 2018.