Financial windfalls add intrigue to upcoming New Brunswick budget

The Higgs government is hanging by a political thread and although it's heading into its second budget next Tuesday with unexpected stacks of money at its disposal, the finance minister and premier are both pledging none of it will be spent to seduce MLAs or voters.

"Government's level of debt remains much too high and represents a burden to future generations," said Finance Minister Ernie Steeves in a statement Thursday suggesting he will bank recent good fortune and not deploy it to prop up his government's teetering fortunes.

"Responsible management of public finances is not a one-year exercise," said Steeves.

Deciding what to do with extra money is not usually an issue in New Brunswick at budget time but this year may be an exception.

More money from federal government

In December, the federal government revealed New Brunswick will get a $219 million increase in unconditional transfers for this year's provincial budget, mostly due to increased equalization.

It's the largest bump in money from Ottawa to New Brunswick in 16 years and is significantly more than Steeves had been expecting.

We're trying to address the big issues because we must.- Premier Blaine Higgs

In last year's multi-year budget projections, the Department of Finance forecast the total revenue growth Steeves would have to work this year would be $153 million (1.6 per cent), but the increase in federal transfers alone will be $66 million more than that.

Any growth at all in provincially generated tax revenue, which has happened in nine of the last ten years, will add to that financial cushion but Premier Blaine Higgs, like Steeves, claims there will be no sign of any windfall spending next week.

"We're trying to address the big issues because we must," said Higgs two weeks ago in rejecting the idea of spending more freelyto win votes in the legislature, or,if that fails, later at the polls.

"I guess we'll see how people react as we go forward because I'm counting on people to say, you know, somebody's got tobe the grown-up in the room and start to address real issues," Higgs said.

Debt reduction ahead of schedule

Adding to the financial room Steeves has to work with next week, if he chooses, is the discovery in the last several months the province's debt reduction plan is $245.1 million ahead of schedule.

In last year's budget Steeves laid out a plan to get the province's debt down to $14.06 billion by the end of this month. Instead it's headed for $13.81 billion, partly because last year's final audited results were better than expected and partly because this year's financial results are also exceeding expectations.

The fate of Higgs' minority government may well come down to whether next week's budget is accepted or rejected by the legislature but so far there is little sign that is changing what will be in it.

For or against

New Brunswick Liberal leader Kevin Vickers has vowed his party's MLAs will vote against the document sight unseen although renegade Saint John Liberal Gerry Lowe said he could support it under certain conditions.

Former PC MLA Robert Gauvin fromShippigan-Lamque-Miscounow sits an independent and has also indicated he will vote against the budget, requiring Higgsto win support from both People's Alliance and Green Party MLAs.

Earlier this week, Green Party leader David Coon released a report calling for a "budget with heart" and advocated for increased resources for a number of social services.

Publicly,Higgs has not budged from his own vision.

Even if lower provincial debt levels and a steep jump in federal aid present some financial room to accommodate some requests, Higgs insisted again on Friday that he is not interested in spending money to win favour.

"We have our budget prepared.It's a great budget for New Brunswick. It's not an election budget," he said "But I wouldn't be doing that anyway.If it's not good enough for the province I don't know really what would be."